IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
Group of Experts on National Accounts
23-25 April 2024
Bokang Vumbukani-Lepolesa
Chief Director National Accounts
Estimation of regional gross
domestic product for South
Africa: experimental estimates
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
History and overview Methodology Key Results
Overview
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
Regional GDP
history and
overview
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Why are provincial GDP data important in South Africa?
• There is a strong policy interest in economic growth
in different parts of the country, for provincial policy
formulation and evaluation
• Provincial institutions are interested to see how they
rank against their peers and the extent to which their
economies contribute to the country as a whole
• Provincial information helps private investors make
better investment decisions
• Provincial GDP estimates are used as one of the
indicators for equitable allocation of funds across
South African provinces
• Provincial data enhances the existing body of
economic and econometric models
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Stats SA's offerings of sub-regional data
Stats SA publishes sub-national economic data for selected releases and reports
Labour data
Structural statistics
for selected
industries
Electricity
generation
Building
statistics
Government
financial data
Consumer
prices
Environmental
indicators
Agriculture
Residential
property prices
However, there are still data gaps
that we are trying to close; hence
the estimation of regional GDP
Census
2022
Regional
GDP
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020History of the new provincial GDP
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
Regional GDP
methodology
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
• Top down approach
• Provincial GDP estimates are compiled from the distribution of
industry totals from supply and use tables (SUT) across
provinces using provincial indicators
• Provincial indicators, derived from various sources, were used
as distribution keys
• Data gaps were filled through extrapolation and interpolation
with available data
• The provincial estimates were balanced and adjusted to
maintain consistency with national totals
Estimating provincial GDP figures
2
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
• A double deflation technique was used to
compile volume estimates at constant prices
• Output and intermediate consumption were
deflated separately using relevant price indices
Volume estimates
3
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Industries: Sources of data
1. Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 11: Crops and animal production,
hunting and related service activities
Sales and purchases of goods and services,
rand values
Stats SA: Census of Commercial
Agriculture (Report 11-02-01)
Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
SIC 12: Forestry and logging activities Round wood processed, tons DALRRD: Report on Commercial
Timber Resources and Primary
Round Wood Processing in South
Africa
SIC 13: Fishing and aquaculture activities Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
Informal Number of households using wood Stats SA: General Household
Survey (P0318)
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
2. Mining & quarrying
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 2: Mining and quarrying industry Sales and purchases of goods and services, rand
values
Stats SA: SIS – Mining industry
(Report No. 20-01-02)
Total sales, rand values Department of Mineral Resources
and Energy (DMRE)
Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
Informal Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
3. Manufacturing
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 3: Manufacturing industry Sales and purchases of goods and services,
rand values
Stats SA: SIS – Manufacturing
industry (Report No. 30-02-04)
SIC 306: Manufacturing of tobacco products Number of people employed Empirical research and media
reports
Informal
Small scale
Non-observed
Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
4. Electricity, gas & water
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 411: Production, collection and
distribution of electricity
Electricity generated and available for
distribution, gigawatt-hours
Stats SA: Electricity generated and
available for distribution (P4141)
SIC 4111: Local Income from sales and expenditure, rand values Stats SA: Quarterly Financial
Statistics of Municipalities (P9110
and P9110.1)
SIC 4120-30: Manufacturing and distribution
of gaseous fuels through mains
Income from sales of goods and services, rand
values
Stats SA: SIS – Electricity, Gas and
Water Supply (Report No. 41-01-02)
SIC 42: Collection, purification and distribution
of water
Income from sales of goods and services, rand
values
Stats SA: SIS – Electricity, Gas and
Water Supply (Report No. 41-01-02)
SIC 4211: Local Income from sales and expenditure, rand values Stats SA: Quarterly Financial
Statistics of Municipalities (P9110
and P9110.1)
Informal Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
5. Construction
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 5: Construction industry Number of buildings reported as completed
Number of people employed
Stats SA: Building Statistics
(Report No. 50-11-01)
Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 61: Wholesale trade, commission trade
Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
SIC 62: Retail trade
SIC 64: Hotels and restaurants
SIC 63: Sale, maintenance and repair of motor
vehicles
Income from sales, rand values
Number of people employed
NAAMSA
Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
6. Trade services
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
7. Transport, storage & communication
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 711: Rail transport Passenger volumes
Number of employees
PRASA
Transnet Freight Lines
SIC 712: Road transport Number of live vehicles eNaTIS, National Department of Transport
SIC 713: Transport via pipeline Number of employees Transnet Pipelines
SIC 72: Water transport Total cargo handled Transnet National Ports Authority
SIC 73: Air transport Passenger volumes ACSA
Gateway Airport Authority Limited
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
7. Transport, storage & communication (continued)
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 7411: Cargo handling
SIC 7412: Storage and warehouse
SIC 7419: Forwarding of freight
Total cargo handled
Number of people employed
Transnet National Ports Authority
Transnet Freight Lines
SIC 7413: Operation of terminals,
infrastructure, etc.
Vessel arrivals and total cargo shipped Transnet National Ports Authority
SIC 7414: Travel agencies Outbound passenger volumes
Number of people employed
ACSA
Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
SIC 75: Post and telecommunications Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
Informal Passenger volumes Stats SA: General Household Survey (P0318)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
8. Finance, real estate & business services
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 81: Financial intermediation
excluding insurance and pension
funding
Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
(P0211)
SIC 82: Insurance and pension
funding
Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
(P0211)
SIC 83: Activities auxiliary to financial
intermediation
Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
(P0211)
SIC 84: Real estate activities Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
(P0211)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
8. Finance, real estate & business services (continued)
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 85: Renting of machinery and
equipment
Income from services rendered
Number of employees
Stats SA: (SIS) – Real estate, activities
auxiliary to financial intermediation
and business services industry (Report
No. 80-04-02)
Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
SIC 86: Computer and related
activities Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
SIC 87: Research and development
SIC 88: Other business activities
SIC 8: Informal Number of people employed Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force
Survey (P0211)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
9. General government services
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 911: Central
SIC 913: Local
Salaries and wages; and expenditure on goods
and services, rand values
Number of people employed
Stats SA: Financial statistics of
consolidated general government
(P9119.4)
Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
(P0211)
SIC 912: Provincial Salaries and wages; and expenditure on goods
and services, rand values
Stats SA: Financial statistics of
provincial government (P9121)
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
10. Personal services
Component Indicator variable and unit of measurement Source
SIC 92: Education
Number of learners EMIS database, Department of Basic
Education
SIC 93: Health and social work
Number of people employed
Expenditure on goods and service; salaries and
wages, rand values
Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
(P0211)
Stats SA: Financial statistics of
consolidated general government
(P9119.4)
SIC 94: Sewage and refuse disposal,
sanitation and similar activities
SIC 95: Activities of membership
organisations n.e.c.
SIC 96: Recreational, cultural and
sporting activities
SIC 99: Other service activities
Households
Number of people employed
Stats SA: Quarterly Labour Force Survey
(P0211)
Non-profit institutions
Informal
Industries: Sources of data
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
Key results
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Revisions for Q3: 2020GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020There are notable differences in contribution of regions to the GDP of South Africa
Percentage contribution to South African GDP in 2022, current prices (Total: R6,6 trillion)
Gauteng
33,1%
KwaZulu-Natal
15,9%
Western Cape
13,9%
Mpumalanga
8,0%
Limpopo
7,7%
Eastern
Cape
7,6%
North
West
6,6%
Free
State
4,9%
Northern Cape 2,2%
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020
Annual percentage change in regional GDP between 2021 and 2022
Constant 2015 prices
LP
1,0%
MP
0,6%
KZN
1,1%
EC
2,1%
FS
1,5%
NW
0,6%
NC
0,7%
WC
2,6%
GP
2,8%
South Africa
1,9%
Growth varied considerably across the regions
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
Annual percentage change in GDP
Constant 2015 prices
GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Regional GDP growth rates (2013–2022)
GP WC EC FS KZN LP NC MP NW
National growth Provincial growth
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Gauteng has the highest GDP per capita in the nationGDP per capita Eastern Cape recorded the lowest GDP per capita (2022)
R54,805
R54,935
R66,041
R67,889
R72,056
R74,953
R75,207
R75,889
R90,571
R96,252
Eastern Cape
Limpopo
KwaZulu-Natal
North West
Mpumalanga
Northern Cape
Free State
South Africa
Western Cape
Gauteng
South Africa
GDP source: Provincial gross domestic product: experimental estimates, 2013–2022. Discussion document (D0441.1) GDP: Constant 2015 prices Population source: Mid-year population estimates, 2022 (published in July 2022)
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Gauteng has the highest GDP per capita in the nationEastern Cape is the only province whose GDP per capita was higher in 2022 than in 2013
GDP: Constant 2015 prices Population source: Mid-year population estimates, 2022 (published in July 2022)
GPWC
EC FS KZN LP
NC MP NW
National
Index 2013=100 COVID-19 had a severe impact on GDP per capita in all provinces
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Every
The largest industries in each province. Percentage contribution to provincial value added, current prices
Provincial industry composition in 2022
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
GDP production: Growth figures for Q4: 2020Every Next steps
IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS
Thank you
Download the Regional GDP
experimental estimates here
Email: [email protected]
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