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United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

(UK) Scenario Catalogue Paper

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GRVA-Scenarios-03 6-7 May 2024

-*-*-*-

Position Paper on UNECE Catalogue for Scenarios for Automated Driving Systems Approval Process

Submitted from experts from the United Kingdom

Background:

At the 18th GRVA meeting held in Geneva, the topic of UNECE Catalogue for Scenarios for Automated Driving Systems (ADS) Approval Process was discussed. Various presentations were shared from stakeholders including France, ITU, United Kingdom and University of Warwick. Each of the presentations shared their initial thought process about the concept of a UNECE scenario catalogue. On the suggestion of the GRVA Chair, it was decided that a dedicated workshop to delve into the details of the nuances to be considered for a UNECE scenario catalogue need to be discussed. This document is intended to aid the conversations for this workshop with inputs from the UK experts.

Things to consider and current working principles:

As the work on the UNECE ADS Regulation and GTR has kicked-off on 22nd April 2024 building upon the Guideline document jointly created by FRAV and VMAD sub-groups (GRVA-18-50), it is evident that scenarios will play a key role in the approval process for automated driving systems. UNECE Guideline document shares details for a scenario generation process. We would like to state the current expected working principles regarding scenario catalogues for operationalising an ADS regulation and approval process. Based on our discussions with various stakeholders, we have established that:

1. ADS developers will possess internal (in-house) catalogues for relevant scenarios for their system of interest.

2. A Type Approval Authority (TAA) and Technical Service Provider (TSP) will require access to a scenario catalogue(s) to enable them to undertake an approval of an ADS for choosing relevant scenarios for the ODD.

3. A TAA or TSP will need access to an independent scenario catalogue which is different from the ADS’ developers’ in-house scenario catalogue.

4. Such an independent scenario catalogue (which could be a UNECE scenario catalogue) should not be a replacement for an ADS developers’ in-house scenario catalogue.

5. An independent scenario catalogue (which could be a UNECE scenario catalogue) should complement an ADS developers’ in-house scenario catalogue.

6. A scenario catalogue (either UNECE or ADS developers’ in-house) needs to contain scenarios relevant to the ODD of the system to be approved.

7. While interoperability between scenario catalogues is good to have, it raises questions about the accountability of the quality assurance of the conversions between various scenario catalogues. This is especially important when used as part of an approval process.

8. An independent scenario catalogue (which could be a UNECE scenario catalogue) is important to ensure appropriate implementation and operationalisation of the in- service monitoring process and identification and sharing of new scenarios from real- world for both 58 and 98 agreement contracting parties.

9. An independent scenario catalogue will aid type-approval authorities in various countries to be able to confidently approve systems for other countries using scenarios present in the central UNECE catalogue. This will enable easier implementation of the mutual recognition scheme by reducing workload on type approval authorities and technical services.

10. Development of an independent scenario catalogue (which could be a UNECE scenario catalogue) is an IT undertaking.

11. A UNECE scenario catalogue would need to be funded by stakeholder(s).

(France/UK) UNECE initiative for a WG on Scenarios

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DGITM/DMR/TUD GRVA-Scenarios-02 6-7 May 2024

Proposal for a workshop on scenarios under UNECE fora

Preparation of the 1st meeting, Paris La Défense, May 6-7 2024

This document intends to shape questions underlying the initiative of a dedicated UNECE workshop on scenarios and their database’s management. In preparation of 18th GRVA, ITU shared interest to further discuss “scenario catalogues for ADS”.

During last GRVA, several presentations were made to elaborate on the needs to work on scenarios according to different perspectives. ITU presented interest in working on a scenario catalogue and shared strong support from contracting parties and industry in creating a scenario catalogue.

France and the United Kingdom shared the need to foster collaboration on scenarios; especially on the value harmonization could bring to the entire ecosystem, for both public and private stakeholders. ADScene and SafetyPool, either two existing database holders presented two different ways to implement a national scenario database, from an industrial or a research perspective.

Based on these presentations, the opportunity of a new sub-group under UNECE fora came as a possible way forward.

This raises questions such as the objectives of this group and its possible production, common addressable topics on scenarios that need further discussions. In this context, ahead of the meeting scheduled in Paris on 6 and 7 May 2024, this document intends to collect participants’ views on these questions.

The document is organized as follows: it tries to shape the objectives of the work to achieve around scenario issues; it reviews briefly the current state of international work on scenarios, and finally opens up questions on opportunities and challenges to be discussed during the workshop (how to handle each). In that manner, this document identifies potential gaps towards a better use of scenarios in proposing a draft agenda.

1- Objectives

Scenarios are at the forefront of safety demonstration within the international ADS framework, in which are integrated safety assessment and test methods: as one of the five NATM pillars and further by making the link between these pillars, having the advantage of being independent of test procedures themselves.

Scenarios have the potential to address the complexity of assessing ADS performances (while remaining technology neutral) across the diversity of possible ODDs (and more locally ODs).

During last GRVA meeting, discussions pointed out the need to better assess international coordination needs before examining the suitability of a centralized scenario catalogue or database.

Therefore, it is proposed that the terms “UN scenario catalogue” would be understood more broadly than a physical platform. In this perspective, the scope of the group would rather be: “International exchanges, cooperation or coordination in using scenario approaches, catalogues or databases for safety demonstration of automated road transport systems”.

Working on a cooperative or coordinated approach would address several challenges of the scenario-based approach for systems’ validation:

- How to tend towards a better scenario coverage, as inherent to the notion of “reasonably foreseeable hazards within the ODD”? : it is likely that diverse scenario approaches, catalogues and database could bring a significant value-added one to another, in helping filling the gaps or “blind angles” or “black swans” if efficient exchanges are organized ; this, inter alia, covers the fact that different national approaches may address different types of ODDs (e.g. infrastructure design, weather, driving cultural behaviors, driving direction).

DGITM/DMR/TUD GRVA-Scenarios-02 6-7 May 2024

- How to continuously improve the cost-benefit of using a scenario approach? e.g. by selecting scenarios that combine a high representativeness of critical driving situations and an operational manageability for implementing tests or, more generally, applying pass-fail criteria to systems’ responses ;

- How to avoid potential discrepancies in national practices in using scenario approaches to validate automated systems? The challenge is to balance justified national specificities (e.g. based on national features of local ODDs and driving behaviors, or expected behaviors regarding traffic rules) and the need for the industry to optimize the costs of validation in multiple regional or national markets.

At first, these possible value-added of a more cooperative, collaborative or coordinated approach on scenarios would raise interoperability issues to overcome to ease this cooperation (up to scenario-sharing options?), between type-approval authorities, regulators, and the industry. Interoperability means to open room for possible harmonized tools, practices or procedures stakeholders are eager to share, while some others aspects remain out of the scope as competitive.

Second, the question of sharing lists of scenarios could be raised, for the seek of a better coverage and benefiting from deployment in which new scenarios emerge from in-service monitoring and reporting.

Finally, as several scenario catalogues will exist and be used by various stakeholders, the question of assessing “performance” of scenario catalogues will likely arise; assessing a scenario catalogue might refer to define indicators and thresholds for different safety-validation objectives.

2- State of play for a possible approach

A lot has been done considering scenario taxonomy and guiding principles for scenario description, generation and their increasing role within test procedures.

The scenario approach is thus well introduced in the ADS integrated document as “the guidelines recommend the development of a scenario catalogue for use across five validation pillars”.

Moreover considering the EU-approach to regulating fully automated vehicles, scenarios are at the core of the ADS regulation (EU) 2022/1426: scenario definition, guiding principles and concepts, scenario testing (simulation and real testing). The interpretation document published by the EC-JRC (February 2024) gives additional guidance for scenario generation (Appendix 2).

Finally when considering industrial and research initiatives among scenarios, it can be seen that various stakeholders have launched their own platform to collect scenarios: ADScenes (FR industrial), MOSAR (FR research), SafetyPool (UK), SAKURA (JP), PEGASUS (DE), StreetWise (NL), Fortellix (IL).

Joint efforts have been gathered on scenarios, especially concerning scenario taxonomy, and generation both at the international level and at the European level, than at ISO level (3450X corpus).

These guidance illustrate the importance to combine two pillars in building a scenario catalogue: scenario from data-based (accident and real world) sources and from knowledge-based (risk analysis) sources. Nonetheless, the importance of the combinatory-based pillars remains to be fully addressed, though introduced in the EC-JRC interpretation document from February 2024. The living principle of the scenario- based approached relies in its ability to continually grow thanks to new descriptors (attributes) or axis, building new scenarios.

In that perspective, the ability to share these augmented variables within both scenario catalogues and scenario databases might be crucial in the line of deployments first, monitoring then.

As a complement, guiding principles of transparency, traceability and explicability of safety assessment methods depends on the scenario-based approach itself.

These principles raise some other questions supporting proportionality of scenario use as for example moving from generic ODDs to concrete deployment environments, moving from low to high severity and low to high exposure, taking into account the “duty of care” to immediate crash avoidance in expected responses.

DGITM/DMR/TUD GRVA-Scenarios-02 6-7 May 2024

3- Draft agenda

It is proposed that discussions around cooperation, collaboration or coordination of scenarios-based approaches and the management of scenario catalogues or databases would be structured along the following scope and questions:

a) Is there a need for a UNECE catalogue?

• What requirements does a UNECE catalogue need to fulfil? / How would a UNECE catalogue be used? • How would a UNECE catalogue interact with other national catalogues? • How would a UNECE catalogue be produced and maintained? • How do we fulfil these requirements? • What will be the governance, including stakeholders, rights, responsibilities, etc.

b) How to ensure scenario database interoperability?

Once this is clearly defined, the workshop on scenarios intends to gather interesting stakeholders working on scenarios and refers to a global “cooperation or coordination” around scenario activities, such as different management / sharing / access options to scenario databases. It then raises the second question: what does “cooperation or coordination” refer to?

Under this more flexible concept of cooperation – coordination, could be considered, inter alia:

• Common / inter-operable list of descriptors • Minimum list of metadata • Mutual access to collected scenarios (scene, hazards, responses) • Mutual access to generation / combination / selection modules • Mutual access to qualified scenarios for testing purposes • Common access rules (e.g. special rights for regulators? Accident department) • Common pricing principles (e.g. cost-orientation) • Standardized interfaces / APIs • References for quality levels (e.g. completeness, traceability, data sources’ consistency / quality) • Classification of existing databases through common criteria

c) Is there consideration needed of the following scenario topics?

The proposed scope (enlarged from the initial concept of “UN scenario database”) would be

• Scenario definitions / scenario generation o List of descriptors in close collaboration with ODD descriptors (scene, hazards, (response?),

other scenario attributes as for example exposure and severity) and the implementation of the combinatory-based approach on OEDR elements

o Scenarios themselves (projected on descriptors, metadata as for example scenario sources, use case)

• Scenario selection • Test procedures implementing scenarios (including pass/fail criteria) • More theoretically generation / combination / selection modules • Governance features (requirements for database feeding, access rules and reuse conditions, prices)

DC2024_S3_UK_Wyatt_A.pdf

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1

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS Expert Meeting on Statistical Data Collection and Sources 22-24 May 2024, Geneva, Switzerland

19 April 2024

A fresh start: Redesigning our field operation – including roles, contracts and casework allocations – at the ONS (UK)

Dulcie Wyatt (Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom) [email protected] Abstract As a result of emerging changes introduced by our ambitious transformation agenda, and, in the face of the increasing challenges experienced in our sector, it was recognised that the social survey field work undertaken within ONS, and the way in which we are set up to deliver this work, need to evolve. As such, a project to undertake a fundamental re-design of ONS’s field operation was established: the Field Redesign. This project has re-examined all facets of our operation, with a view to redesigning what we need to set us up effectively for our future, including: - our interviewer roles and how these can be modernised to adapt to mixed modes of collection and changing needs - the contractual arrangements and how these can support the changing context within which we need to recruit and retain colleagues, whilst still supporting in-field work requirements - our allocations approaches, and how we can exploit technology alongside new contractual arrangements to support our operation The presentation will set out the work progressed, the future design we are now working towards, and our progress to date in the Field Redesign project.

  • A fresh start: Redesigning our field operation – including roles, contracts and casework allocations – at the ONS (UK)

DC2024_S2_UK_Dorsett_A.pdf

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1

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS

Expert Meeting on Statistical Data Collection and Sources

22-24 May 2024, Geneva, Switzerland

19 April 2024

ONS business-centred approach to research recruitment methods to

understand business engagement needs – challenges and successes

Inara Dorsett and Kate Thorsteinsson (ONS, United Kingdom)

[email protected], [email protected]

Abstract

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is conducting research with UK businesses to determine how to

improve business engagement, as well as better design our survey portfolio and systems to reduce burden while

maintaining data quality. Led by the ONS Business Survey Strategy (BSS) which has set an overarching vision,

this research is forming the basis of how we may improve our service for businesses in the future. We know

that engaging businesses is critical as part of ongoing survey operations but in order to improve this, we need to

hear from businesses to understand their needs. But how do we get businesses to engage with the research, if

we have not yet built those improved relationships? In this presentation, we will discuss a current piece of

research describing how we took a holistic business-centred, rather than a survey-specific, approach to

recruitment for qualitative interviews with businesses. Adopting this approach brought some challenges that

were unexpected, but we had some marked successes in terms of research participation. We will share our

experiences and lessons learned with the e-BDCM group for discussion and reflection.

DC2024_S2_UK_Williams Davies_A.pdf

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1

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS Expert Meeting on Statistical Data Collection and Sources 22-24 May 2024, Geneva, Switzerland

19 April 2024

Quality of Survey and Administrative Data: Two New Applications of Representativity-Indicators

Ella Williams Davies, Kim Warne, Chelsea-Rhianne McGuire and Nina Sommerland (Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom) [email protected] Abstract Representativeness is a core aspect of survey and administrative data quality. Here we define representativeness as how well the data reflect population groups or individuals’ characteristics. Representativity-indicators (R- indicators), worked on by Professor Natalie Shlomo, Professor Barry Schouten, and Doctor Fannie Cobben (among others) have been widely tested in a survey data context to understand differences between the characteristics of those who do and do not respond to surveys. Our proposed contribution includes two projects; using R-indicators and distance metrics to assess the representativeness of administrative data, and exploring whether applying R-indicators could provide insight into mode effects on survey data. Administrative data is data that has been collected during the operation of an organisation. Until now, R- indicators had not been applied to administrative data. Through an ESRC grant, Professor Natalie Shlomo and Doctor Sook Kim adapted the R indicators method for the ONS to test, to measure how representative the administrative data are of the population, compared to (in our application) 2021 Census data. Separately, we are applying the R-indicators method for surveys to a mixed-mode survey within ONS, to explore what it can tell us (if anything) about mode effects. We will discuss methodology, results, challenges and future developments.

  • Quality of Survey and Administrative Data: Two New Applications of Representativity-Indicators

DC2024_S2_UK_Siemiatkowska_A.pdf

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1

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS Expert Meeting on Statistical Data Collection and Sources 22-24 May 2024, Geneva, Switzerland

19 April 2024

Implementing an Adaptive Survey Design (ASD) for the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS)

Michalina Siemiatkowska and Maria Tortoriello (Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom) [email protected] Abstract The UK Office for National Statistics are transforming their social surveys. At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic an online-only Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) was launched. An encouraging response rate was achieved. However, as expected from a voluntary online-only survey, differential non-response bias was a problem. As the effects of the pandemic lessened, the natural next step for the TLFS was to introduce face-to-face interviewers. Rather than spending the most expensive survey element on all respondents, we implemented an Adaptive Survey Design (ASD) and Knock-to-Nudge (KtN) aimed at historically hard-to-reach groups. The objective is to improve response and representativeness of the data. Following methodology developed by Statistics Netherlands, our ASD is based on a response propensity model. A logistic regression model was applied to historical TLFS data to identify auxiliary variables strongly associated with response to formulate the ASD strata. Face-to-face interviewers are targeted at under- represented strata to reduce variation in response propensities. Moving away from a traditional focus on response rates, we assess various data quality indicators to inform future development of the ASD. Equally important, we monitor the operational aspect of the design to optimise field processes. This presentation will explore results from the first ASD iteration.

  • Implementing an Adaptive Survey Design (ASD) for the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS)

DC2024_S2_UK_Thorsteinsson_A.pdf

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1

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS

Expert Meeting on Statistical Data Collection and Sources

22-24 May 2024, Geneva, Switzerland

19 April 2024

Successes and challenges of moving from a paper, to an online, based

data collection mode for business surveys.

Kate Thorsteinsson (Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom)

[email protected]

Abstract

The Office for National Statistics (ONS, UK) runs 77 different business surveys, despatching 2.5 million

questionnaires to UK businesses each year. Historically, the vast majority of these were on paper; with printing,

posting, and scanning a major operation. Not only was this unsustainable, but the office needed to keep pace

with the digital world. We also knew that respondents (UK businesses) needed an online service.

ONS developed an in-house bespoke data collection service. Building capability across the portfolio, rather

than taking a survey-by-survey approach, led to the most effective progress.

We have had resounding success. 2.1 million (85%) of the 2.5 million questionnaires despatched each year are

now online. Only the most complex surveys remain on paper. However, our bespoke system brings some

challenges as it does not yet meet the needs of all our businesses, or all our data needs. As a result, and due to,

for example, the COVID-19 pandemic, the ONS has a mixed mode approach within and across surveys, with

editable pdfs, Excel spreadsheets, paper, telephone and electronic questionnaires, all being used to some degree

for business data collection. We will outline some of the benefits and challenges with having such a mixed

array of modes.

DC2024_S1_UK_Davies_A.pdf

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1

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS Expert Meeting on Statistical Data Collection and Sources 22-24 May 2024, Geneva, Switzerland

19 April 2024

Reforming Travel & Tourism Statistics

Tracy Davies and Dean Fletcher (Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom) [email protected] Abstract In October 2019, the Office for Statistics Regulation completed a compliance check of ONS Overseas Travel and Tourism statistics. In response, the Office for National Statistics reviewed the position to:

• Fully understand the needs of users of these statistics • Recommend how tourism statistics should be transformed, including responsibilities, approach, and

data sources • Agree an implementation plan to deliver the transformation

The Travel & Tourism Reform Project (TTRP) commenced in May 2022. Two notable changes are envisaged under TTRP with regard to ONS’s surveys: First is a new Departures survey, which will replace the IPS Departures survey. Its main purpose is to collect:

• spend in the UK by overseas residents plus details of the trip undertaken • pre-trip spend by UK residents plus details of the overseas trip just beginning

In addition, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) also conducts a survey of departing UK and overseas passengers at (some) UK international airports. The CAA survey has incorporated a core set of questions in harmonisation with ONS, which means we can pool the datasets; the resulting sample will be notably larger than the current IPS, which should result in much greater precision in estimates. Second, we will stop ONS’s IPS Arrivals survey, and in its place, the required travel-and-tourism-related questions are being added to Visit Britain’s Great Britain Tourism Survey (GBTS) online panel to collect data from UK nationals about their recent trips abroad. Statistical Modelling of that expenditure data for UK nationals on overseas trips will then be used to predict the spend of UK-resident responders to the combined ONS + CAA departures survey data. Thus the combination of modeled/predicted expenditure with the Departures data on destinations and lengths of stay will allow total expenditure of UK residents to be estimated across the various output domains required. Legal partnerships will be formed between ONS and VisitBritain, VisitScotland, VisitEngalnd and VisitWales, also ONS AND Civil Aviation Authority.

  • Reforming Travel & Tourism Statistics

UK experiences in presenting coherent ‘Beyond GDP’ estimates –Inclusive income 2005-2021

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UK experiences in presenting coherent ‘Beyond GDP’ estimates – Inclusive income 2005-2021

Richard Heys [email protected]

April 2024

Official Sensitive

GDP : A Short History

London, 1948: Birthplace of the SNA • Produced capital heavily

destroyed / depreciated • Little human capital ~ <3% of

workforce attend university • Heavily polluted natural capital

• In short – only flows matter. More consumption depends on your ability to produce more output.

But in modern economies capital matter, and not just the capitals on the balance sheet…

Will the new SNA revision tackle this? New capital inclusions make important steps

• New intangible assets • Inclusion of a wider range of environmental

resources • Tackling global ownership of assets

• But… • Not all the intangible assets (branding assets) • No human capital • No atmosphere • Market valuations of environment give very low

values

Will the new SNA revision tackle this? New capital inclusions make important steps

• New intangible assets • Inclusion of a wider range of environmental

resources • Tackling global ownership of assets

• But… • Not all the intangible assets (branding assets) • No human capital • No atmosphere • Market valuations of environment give very low

values

• However… • Satellite Accounts and SEEA

provide sufficient data in exchange price terms to consider how to take a wider perspective.

What is Inclusive Income? • Measures of economic welfare, which reflect all the goods and services

households consume, whether from the market economy (as shown by GDP) or not.

• Based on national accounting principles, which are more inclusive of a broader definition of economic benefits and better capture the sustainability of economic activity

• Gross Inclusive Income: Based on Gross Domestic Product (per capita). Broad/inclusive measure of economic activity

• Net Inclusive Income: based on Net National Disposable Income (per capita). Broad/inclusive measure of sustainable income

Overview: Widening the Boundaries

SNA Production/Economic Activity SNA Assets

*(For this simplified example I’m ignoring non-produced assets, so this could also be thought of as the capital boundary)

SNA / National Accounts

SNA defines two key boundaries for understanding value;

The “Production boundary” defines what counts as value-creating economic activity

The “Asset Boundary” helps define what is treated as a capital*

— SNA boundaries

Overview: Widening the Boundaries

Human Capital Investment

Human Capital

Eco- system Natural

Services Capital

(Expanded) Intangible Asset Investment

SNA Production/Economic Activity SNA Assets

(Expanded) Intangible Asset Investment

Unpaid Household Services Household Capital

Inclusive Income: End Goal

This shows how inclusive income intends to amend the two boundaries, as well as where it intends to make alternations within the boundaries

— SNA boundaries

Overview: Widening the Boundaries

Human Capital Investment

Human Capital

Eco- system Natural

Services Capital

(Expanded) Intangible Asset Investment

Household Capital

SNA Production/Economic Activity SNA Assets

(Expanded) Intangible Asset Investment

Unpaid Household Services

Inclusive Income: Latest Publication

Our latest publication contains 3 changes to the boundaries: • A large share of human capital is now

capitalised • A subset of natural capital depletion

is included • More ecosystem services are

included

— SNA boundaries ---- Inclusive Income old boundary — Inclusive Income new boundary

Overview: Widening the Boundaries

Human Capital Investment

Human Capital

Eco- system Natural

Services Capital

(Expanded) Intangible Asset Investment

Household Capital

SNA Production/Economic Activity SNA Assets

(Expanded) Intangible Asset Investment

Unpaid Household Services

Inclusive Income: Future Work

This still leaves two key areas we will need to work on for future publications, affecting both boundaries: • Missing coverage of natural

capitals and the services they provide (mostly due to not have data back to 2005).

• The human capital associated with household unpaid services needs to be capitalised.

— SNA boundaries ---- Inclusive Income old boundary — Inclusive Income new boundary

Overview: Headline data

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Net Inclusive Income

Income & Transfers from abroad

Capital depreciation: Natural Capital (Climate degradation)

Capital depreciation: Natural Capital (Oil and Gas Depletion)

Capital depreciation: Human Capital

Capital depreciation: Produced (Household Capital)

Capital depreciation: Produced (Intangible Investment)

Capital depreciation: Produced (National Accounts)

Gross Inclusive Income

Ecosystem regulating and cultural services

Household production

Quality Adjusted Public Services

Intangible Investment

GDP

Taxes minus subsidies

Non-market GVA

Provisioning Services

Market GVA (exc. Provisioning Services)

Waterfall contributions to different economic measures, 2021, Current Prices £m, UK

New narratives: GII per person peaked in 2017, unlike GDP per person.

New narratives: NII per person out-stripped NDNI per person growth pre-Covid, the pandemic reversed this,

New narratives: Household Production was disproportionately hit post-Covid.

Contributions to GII (per person) % growth since 2005

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Market (excluding ecosystem services) GVA Government and NPISH GVA Household Services GVA Ecosystem Services GVA Taxes Minus Subsidies Gross Inclusive Income

New narratives: Human and natural capital depreciation slowed relative to 2005

Contributions to NII (per person) % growth since 2005

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Gross inclusive income Capital depreciation: Produced Capital Capital depreciation: Natural Capital Capital depreciation: Human Capital Income & Transfers from abroad Net inclusive income

New narratives: The emergence of the household economy replacing the dominance of the market.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

GVA for different sectors as % of GII

Market Non market (within SNA) Household

Note: Includes imputed rental of owner-occupied housing within households

New narrative: Pre-Covid, growth was increasingly consumption- rather than investment-led

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Consumption (& net exports) Capital depreciation Capital (net) investment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Current Price GII broken down by expenditure type

Consumption (& net exports) Capital depreciation Capital (net) investment

Conclusions • Feasible using satellite account data to generate long

time series of new data to complement GDP and other national accounts measures.

• Doing so introduces us to new narratives which change our perception of what is important in our economies

  • UK experiences in presenting coherent ‘Beyond GDP’ estimates – Inclusive income 2005-2021
  • GDP : A Short History
  • But in modern economies capital matter, and not just the capitals on the balance sheet…
  • Will the new SNA revision tackle this?
  • Will the new SNA revision tackle this?
  • What is Inclusive Income?
  • Overview: Widening the Boundaries
  • Overview: Widening the Boundaries
  • Overview: Widening the Boundaries
  • Overview: Widening the Boundaries
  • Overview: Headline data
  • New narratives: GII per person peaked in 2017, unlike GDP per person.
  • New narratives: NII per person out-stripped NDNI per person growth pre-Covid, the pandemic reversed this,
  • New narratives: Household Production was disproportionately hit post-Covid.
  • New narratives: Human and natural capital depreciation slowed relative to 2005
  • New narratives: The emergence of the household economy replacing the dominance of the market.
  • New narrative: Pre-Covid, growth was increasingly consumption- rather than investment-led
  • Conclusions

Benchmarking and revision experiences in the UK context

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Benchmarking and revision experiences in the UK context

Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom [email protected]

UN GENA Conference 2024

Craig McLaren, Ben Graham, Niamh McAuley and Andrew Walton

2

Why do we revise GDP? • Timeliness versus accuracy • Increased data content as we move through the

production process, and new methodologies • No GDP number is ever truly final

• Explainer: Why GDP figures are revised

• Increased focus in the UK on communicating uncertainty • Recent podcast (March 2024), accessible blog (December 2023),

upcoming panel session at Economic Statistics conference (May 2024)

UN GENA Conference 2024

GDP estimates in the United Kingdom • Monthly estimate: based on the output approach, is published around 40 days

after the end of the reference month. • First Quarterly Estimate: published around six weeks after the end of

the reference quarter containing output, expenditure and income data. • Quarterly National Accounts: published around 13 weeks after the end of

the reference quarter and includes a full national accounts dataset with increased data content.

• Annual Bluebook (coherent annual estimates): published usually in July or October each year. It is the point of annual reconciliation of data sources. The point of where we introduce change in a coordinated way, inc. benchmarks

3 UN GENA Conference 2024

UK quarterly GDP

First quarterly estimate

• Data content: output 80%, expenditure 60%, income 40%

• Published 40 days after the end of the reference quarter

Quarterly national accounts

• Data content: output 93%, expenditure 75%, income 85%

• Published 85 days after the end of the reference quarter

• For the latest two quarterly periods, the expenditure and income approaches are aligned to output as our best measure due to higher data content. Before that an average of all three approaches is used.

• Revision periods are set by the national accounts revision policy a year in advance; generally, no more than 8 quarters are revised in the short run quarterly GDP estimate

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What changes occur between Quarterly National Accounts and our Annual National Accounts? 1. Updated data (e.g. annual surveys and benchmarks) 2. New methods introduced and improvement to data sources 3. Complete data (e.g. intermediate consumption) 4. Supply and use balancing in current prices and volume at the

detailed 114 product and 114 industry level 5. Deflation by component and product rather than high level

industry in the monthly and quarterly estimates

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Taking on updated data • Supply and Use balance at 114 product by 114 industries • Annual production cycle, either July or October • UK current practice is to take all changes and impacts

back in a complete way (e.g. SUT balanced) to 1997, each year. Separate historical data linked back on.

• Revisions to level and growths are analysed and communicated for transparency

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Communicating changes and revisions Before the annual update: • Published National Accounts revisions policy • Highlight particular challenges in measurement At the time of publication: • Use of language in the release, reasons for revision • Revisions triangles for totals and components • Real Time Databases for totals and components After the annual publication and release: • Regular review of revisions in an annual article.

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Examples from 2023: Updates in UK data Globalisation

• New methodology: focused on a small number of multi- national enterprises, aimed at better accounting for these globalisation impacts

Public sector finances

• Improving the alignment of the National Accounts and public sector finances publications

• Reflect latest classifications

Benchmarks

• Updating and replacing the use of fixed proportions for identified data

• Improving the classification of NPISH and measuring higher education sector

• improved methods for measuring non-UK government personnel spending within UK

• New data sources and methods for measuring rail passenger services

Deflator improvements

• Introducing new methods to account for changes in the quality of computer hardware

• Expanding the use of Services Producer Price Indices (SPPI) in National Accounts

• Introducing new weighting methods for market output deflators

• Introducing improved methods and data sources to estimate trade in services' travel deflators

Other method improvements

• Introducing new methods to measure the value of central government dwellings

• Introducing new data sources to improve the measurement of education-related travel exports

• Updating the estimation of businesses not covered by the Annual Business Survey (ABS) sample frame

• Reviewing and improving the treatment of own account software

+ Usual data updates, including replacing quarterly data with much richer annual data + Estimating 2021 through the SUT framework for the first time and improving 2020 estimates

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Example: updates in our annual 2023 datasets • 75 significant improvements to sources, methods, data

production systems or workflow, or outputs. • 99 minor adjustments and improvements, mostly quality

and system changes for data production areas.

Note: Not every update introduced has the same scale of change or data impact, but these total number is a useful indicator of the volume of change introduced in a given year – 2023 was a larger year, but not unusually so.)

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How do we introduce and manage change • Selected changes are cleared for introduction into the

national accounts each year, and introduced through a structured and consistent change management process.

• Coordination across the organisation • System and method changes are tested in isolation first

to ensure that they’re fit for purpose, then changes are gradually brought together to ensure that the changes all work sensibly and logically when run together.

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How do we introduce and manage change • This structured and consist testing process also provides

a chance to check the expected impacts on output data for changes one at a time – this draft information makes isolating data impacts later in the process much easier.

• Once changes have cleared testing criteria, focused on proving that each change is impacting data as expected, they are introduced into our main dataset for balancing.

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Case study: Revisions to 2020 and 2021 in UK • 2020 and 2021 annual revisions were larger than normal,

but this had been expected, and quarterly narrative relatively unchanged.

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Case study: UK scale of revisions • Revisions need to be put into context around the growth they are

measured against, • Total revision at 36 months as a proportion of the initial growth

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What has UK (ONS) done to communicate revisions since our annual estimates in 2023? • December 2023 quarterly

national accounts saw a step change in our reporting – from the language used, response rates and typical final response rates, future sources of revision, graphics showing the scale of difference in the 3 measures

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Summary • Integration and alignment of data changes (e.g. benchmarks)

and methods updates are important for consistency and coherence

• Different frequencies of UK estimates (e.g. monthly, quarterly and annual)

• UK take through methods and data changes each year in a regular, managed change process back over time

• Looking to see if we change this approach on how far back

• Communication on expected and actual revision impact

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Thank you!

[email protected]

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  • Benchmarking and revision experiences in the UK context
  • Why do we revise GDP?
  • GDP estimates in the United Kingdom
  • UK quarterly GDP
  • What changes occur between Quarterly National Accounts and our Annual National Accounts?
  • Taking on updated data
  • Communicating changes and revisions
  • Examples from 2023: Updates in UK data
  • Example: updates in our annual 2023 datasets
  • How do we introduce and manage change
  • How do we introduce and manage change
  • Case study: Revisions to 2020 and 2021 in UK
  • Case study: UK scale of revisions
  • What has UK (ONS) done to communicate revisions since our annual estimates in 2023?
  • Summary
  • Thank you!��[email protected] ��