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Detailed methodology for the preparation of the forest sector outlook study 2020-2040 ((ECE/TIM/DP/90)


The Forest Sector Outlook Study 2020-2040 (FSOS) for the UNECE region provides information that supports decision-making by showing the possible medium- and long-term consequences of specific policy choices and structural changes, using scenario analyses whenever possible. The study is the first to cover the entire UNECE region and provides results for the main UNECE subregions of Europe, North America and the Russian Federation.

This methodology report provides a detailed description of background, assumptions, approaches and modelling tools utilized in the UNECE Forest Sector Outlook Study 2020-2040 (FSOS) main report. The main report summarizes and discusses the forest sector impacts in UNECE region and subregions of reference and “what-if” scenarios depicting future trajectory of socioeconomic changes, climate change, and structural changes in demand, supply and trade of forest products, globally and in the UNECE region and subregions.

More specifically, this methodology report provides detailed information on i) the selected sets of reference and the alternative “what-if” scenarios, including their development and selection process, assumptions, and justification, and ii) the modelling approaches and global models utilized to simulate and analyse those scenarios, including the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) and an adjunct to the GFPM that generates separate estimates of carbon  sequestered in forest biomass and in harvested wood products.