Impact of high migration on
compilation of external accounts
statistics
Anush Davtyan
External Sector Statistics Division
Central Bank of Armenia
Geneva, UNECE
April 25-27, 2023
Contents
External accounts compilation
Current issues and challenges
Method of estimations implemented
Available data sources and main assumptions
Results, data
Future challenges and plans
The Central bank of Armenia is responsible by law to compile ESS
Methodology is fully consistent with BPM6
The responsibility for data collection from non-bank private sector
remains with National Statistical Service (ArmStat).
The Central bank of Armenia is collecting information only from
financial sector and other financial institutions․
Administrative data sources and frequent surveys are also used by
CBA
CBA is free to make corrections and estimations based on all
available data and expertise
Compilation of External accounts in Armenia
Travel account of BOP
The Travel account statistics is compiled by ArmStat based on
survey conducted in 2013, some revision is made in 2018.
A new extensive international visitors survey for the year 2023 is
presently underway.
Travel statistics is calculated based on number of tourists and
average spending:
– Average spending by a tourist is based on survey data. Furthermore, the
ratios for various objectives of tourism are used to compile the BOP Travel
supplementary accounts.
– To calculate the number of tourists, an IT support system was created. This
system utilizes specific criteria to convert border crossing data into tourism
statistics:
• length of stay in the country < 365 days
• no tax payment in the economy of stay
• no refugee status
Current issues and challenges
Need for extra calculations/ estimations
Since February 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has
resulted in the arrival of numerous foreign citizens to Armenia. Up
to 50 thousands of foreign settlers have chosen to stay in Armenia.
• no need for visa
• ability to stay and work up to 6 month
• tax privilege for IT sector, 49% growth in IT sector for 2022
• easy and fast procedure of enterprise registration
• liberalized financial system
• absence of language obstacles
• familiar culture
An almost equal number of Armenians of descent have also
returned to their homeland, in addition to the foreign nationals.
Country specific issues
After residing in Armenia for a period of 6 months, citizens of the
EAEU are required to depart from the country, but they are
permitted to immediately re-enter and stay for an additional 6
months.
Individuals who are employed by an employer registered in RA or
have registered a sole proprietorship, along with their family
members, are considered exceptions.
If residency determination is based solely on passport data, it can
become complicated for many Armenians who hold dual citizenship
The classification of a traveler as an inbound tourist is only done
when they are leaving Armenia.
Revision of “classic” tourists’ expenses
Data sources available
Data from National Card Operator (ArCa) on the
payments in Armenia using payment cards issued abroad
broken down by Merchant Category Code (MCC)
Currently used valuation indexed with CPI and ExRate
Corrections for payments in cash
Estimation of average expense
“Classic” Tourists
Groups of expenses, USD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Car rental 69 106 125 82
Cash 66 69 85 83
Fast-food services 29 29 37 32
Hotels 168 208 235 202
Restaurants and bars 106 106 132 97
Supermarkets and grocery 32 32 34 35
Taxi services 9.0 12 15 15
Tourism 347 285 237 250
Transport 32 5 9 7
Cinemas, theaters, entertainment 17 31 33 21
Clubs, pools 66 76 64 57
Duty Free shops 52 58 57 57
Jewelry 76 131 124 84
Total non cash expenditure 1,069 1,147 1,187 1,022
Total + Cash 1,319 1,397 1,437 1,272
Currently used, Indexed by inflation 897 863 1,013 1,102
Average 1,108 1,130 1,225 1,187
Estimation of average spending for settlers and repatriates
Data sources available
Data from National Card Operator (ArCa) on the payments in
Armenia using payment cards issued abroad broken down by
Merchant Category Code (MCC). (March 2022)
Data from ArCa on the payments in Armenia using payment
cards issued in Armenia and the share of transactions by
nonresident cardholders broken down by MCC.
Withdraw funds from the cards mentioned earlier
Financial statistics of the banking sector's reporting form on
the number of new accounts opened categorized by the
citizenship of the account owners, as well as data on foreign
currency exchange
Monthly data on the number of inbound/outbound tourists broken
down by citizenship, average length of stay in Armenia and border
crossing point.
Monthly data on the number of people crossing the border broken
down by citizenship, sex and birth year.
Data from the State Register of the Legal Entities of the Ministry of
Justice on the new registered enterprises broken down by sector of
the economy, the citizenship of the owner and type of legal entity.
Monthly data from the State Revenue Agency on the number of
registered nonresident workers.
Data from Migration Service of Armenia on the number of foreign
citizens who received the work permit in Armenia broken down by
citizenship.
Estimation of the number of settlers and repatriates
Data sources available
Settlers and repatriates
March Q2 Q3 Q4
Appliances 142 83 115 111
Beauty 86 152 158 172
Clothes 77 84 90 138
Fast-food services 42 57 71 93
Hotels 149 102 143 181
Medical services 58 60 65 71
Pets 18 33 37 38
Restaurants and bars 94 158 185 226
Shoes 48 72 77 132
Supermarkets and grocery 70 209 239 384
Taxi services 36 81 101 102
Utility Payments 40 46 40 65
Other 121 104 90 121
Total, expenditure per person, USD 982 1,241 1,412 1,834
Number of returned Armenians 3 000 18 000 37 000 48 000
Number of relocated individuals 7 000 23 000 33 000 51 000
Total number 10 000 41 000 70 000 99 000
Total non cash expenditure, mln USD 9.8 31.6 78.3 181.5
Rent 201.2 666.6 734.1 754.6
Total non cash expenditure + rent, mln USD 11.2 41.6 98.9 220.0
Cash withdrawal from cards, mln USD 10.9 14.8 20.7 38.1
Net foreign currency exchange by non res.
individuals, mln USD
7.8 11.3 10.3 6.6
Corrections of Travel exports to BOP, mln USD 30.0 67.8 129.9 264.7
Results in BOP, 2022, mln USD
By NSS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Personal 69.9 108.7 148.9 108.3 436
credit
163.5 242.3 492.0 351.7 1,249
debit
93.6 133.6 343.1 243.4 814
Estimations by
CBA Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Personal 75.8 118.7 260.5 273.2 728
+ credit 99.7 166.7 380.6 383.8 1,031
+ debit 23.9 48.0 120.2 110.6 303
Final results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Personal 145.7 227.4 409.4 381.4 1,164
credit
263.2 409.1 872.6 735.5 2,280
debit
117.5 181.7 463.2 354.0 1,116
CAB/GDP and Travel/GDP, %
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
CAB/GDP seasonally adjusted Travel/GDP seasonally adjusted CAB/GDP Travel/GDP
Official number of inbound and outbound tourists
Total inbound of which Russian citizens of which Armenian citizens Total outbound
2021 884,398 354,703 174,888 440,797
2022 1,672,755 795,712 263,275 1,156,810
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
of which Russian citizens of which Armenian citizens Total Outbound
Ratio of transactions by nonresident cardholders
with cards issued in Armenia, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Remittances, Compensation of employees
Remittance statistics is compiled based on:
Reporting Form of Commercial banks
Household Surveys
Seasonal Workers Survey
Surveys of individuals-clients of commercial banks
In 2022 debit of compensation of employees account was
revised based on increase of nonresident workers registered
by the State revenue committee. As a result, there was a
twofold increase in the number of these workers for 2022 in
comparison to the previous figure.
New registered enterprises with foreign owners
and increase in number of non resident employees
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Total 2021
Total IT Nonres employees
Questions for discussion and some clarification
Basis of 1 year is applied, or data on intention to stay in
Armenia is used if available.
Reclassification of settlers to residents leads to a shift in their
expenditure from travel export to domestic consumption.
One challenge is the adjustment of tourist numbers when
individuals who are already residents according to
international methodology continue to be counted as tourists
each time they cross the border.
Future steps
Replace the ArCa data with reporting forms from banks
Use the results of new Visitors’ survey
Explore new data sources
Thank you for your attention
Շնորհակալություն
Questions?