| Document Title | ENG | Presentations | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INF.1 | Information Notice 1 | ||
| INF.2 Rev. | Information Notice 2 | ||
| INF.3 | Information Notice 3 | ||
| Provisional agenda | |||
| Book of abstract | |||
| Draft report | |||
| Keynote lectures | |||
| Probabilistic demographic projections (University of Oslo) | |||
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Population Ageing – A Threat to the Welfare State? (Lund University) |
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| Assumptions on future migration | |||
| WP4.1 | Projections of ageing migrant populations in France: 2008-2028 (INED) | ||
| WP4.2 | Introducing duration dependant emigration in DREAMs population projection model (DREAM) | ||
| WP4.3 | Model to forecast the re-immigration of Swedish-born by background (Sweden) | ||
| WP4.4 | Dynamical models for migration projections (Iceland) | ||
| Assumptions on future mortality | |||
| WP5.1 | Cohort effects and structural changes in the mortality trend (Portugal) | ||
| WP5.2 | Evaluation of Korean Mortality Forecasting Models (Korea) | ||
| WP5.3 | Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: compositional models for French Cause of Death data, 1925-2008 (INED) | ||
| WP5.4 | Changing mortality trends by age and sex are challenges for assumptions on future mortality (Sweden) | ||
| Actual and potential use of demographic projections at national and international level | |||
| WP6.1 | Indexation of the pension age to projected remaining life expectancy in The Netherlands (Netherlands) | ||
| WP6.2 | The role of population projections for a redefinition of the Portuguese higher educational institutional network (University of Évora) | ||
| WP6.3 | On the use of seasonal forecasting methods to model birth and deaths data as an input for monthly population estimates (Portugal) | ||
| National and international population projections out of the EU region | |||
| WP7.1 | Qualitative and methodological aspects of population projections in Georgia; Georgian Population Prospects:1950-2050 (Ilia State University) | ||
| WP7.2 | Population Prospects of Georgia (Ilia State University) | ||
| WP7.3 | Estimation of the size and vital rates of the Haredi (ultra-orthodox) population in Israel for the purpose of long-range population projections (Isreal) | ||
| WP7.4 | Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region (NIDI) | ||
| Assumptions on future fertility | |||
| WP8.1 | Contribution of fertility model and parameterization to population projection errors (VID) | ||
| WP8.2 | New family values and increased childbearing in Sweden? (Sweden) | ||
| WP8.3 | Projecting fertility by regions considering tempo-adjusted TFR, the Austrian approach (Austria) | ||
| WP8.4 | Effects of childbearing postponement on cohort fertility in Germany (Destatis) | ||
| Stochastic methods in population projections | |||
| WP9.1 | Measuring uncertainty in population forecasts: a new approach (University of California Riverside, University of California San Diego) | ||
| WP9.2 | Stochastic population forecast: an application to the Rome Metropolitan Area (University of Rome 'La Sapienza', CNR IRPPS) | ||
| WP9.3 | Long-term contribution of immigration to population renewal in Canada: a sensitivity analysis using Demosim (Canada) | ||
| WP9.4 | From agent-based models to statistical emulators (University of Southampton) | ||
| Household projections | |||
| WP10.1 |
Estimating the number of households: an unavoidable challenge for the statistical system (INE) |
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| WP10.2 |
A household projection model for Belgium based on individual household membership rates, using the LIPRO typology (Federal Planning Bureau) |
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| WP10.3 |
Household Projections and Welfare (University of Milan Bicocca, ISMU, Ministero del Lavoro e delle Politiche Sociali) |
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| Demographic sustainability and consistency with macroeconomic assumptions | |||
| WP11.1 |
Ageing alone? The future of the Portuguese population in discussion (University of Évora) |
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| WP11.2 |
Integrating labor market in population projections (CSIC - Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia) |
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| WP11.3 |
Economic factors and net migration assumptions for EU countries – how to incorporate lessons from the recent economic crisis? (Warsaw School of Economics) |
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| Bayesian approaches (1) | |||
| WP12.1 |
Bayesian functional models for population forecasting (University of Southampton, the Australian National University) |
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| WP12.2 |
Towards stochastic forecasts of the Italian population: an experiment with conditional expert elicitations University of Oxford, Istat, Bocconi University) |
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| WP12.3 |
Expert-Based stochastic population forecasting: a bayesian approach to the combination of the elicitations (University of Oxford, Bocconi University) |
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| Bayesian approaches (2) | |||
| WP13.1 |
Bayesian probabilistic projection of international migration rates (University of Washington) |
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| WP13.2 |
Bayesian probabilistic population projections: do it yourself (University of Washington, UNPD) |
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| WP13.3 |
Bayesian mortality forecasts with a flexible age pattern of change for several European countries (University of Rostock) |
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| Multiregional projections | |||
| WP14.1 |
Examining the Role of International Migration in Global Population Projections (VID, IAASA) |
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| WP14.2 |
Subnational population projections for Turkey, 2013-2023 (Turkey) |
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| WP14.3 |
An alternative projection model for interprovincial migration in Canada (Canada) |
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| WP14.4 |
A Space-Time extension of the Lee-Carter model in a hierarchical bayesian framework: modelling and forecasting provincial mortality in Italy. (University of Bologna) |
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| Beyond population projections by age and sex: inclusion of additional population characteristics | |||
| WP15.1 |
Projecting inequality: the role of population change Vrije University of Bruxelles, KU Leuven University) |
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| WP15.2 |
The impact of Canadian immigrant selection policy on future imbalances in labour force supply by broad skill levels (INRS Urbanisation Culture Société Research Centre) |
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| WP15.3 |
Microsimulation of language characteristics and language choice in multilingual regions with high immigration ( INRS Urbanisation Culture, Société Research Centre) |
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| WP15.4 |
A method for projecting economically active population. The case of Andalusia (Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia) |
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| Population projections by age, sex and level of education (1) | |||
| WP16.1 |
The scientific base of the new Wittgenstein Centre Global Human Capital Projections: defining assumptions through an evaluation of expert views on future fertility, mortality and migration (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU) |
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| WP16.2 |
Developing Expert-Based assumptions on future fertility, mortality and migratio (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU) |
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| WP16.3 |
The impact of alternative assumptions about migration differentials by education on projections of human capital (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU) |
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| Population projections by age, sex and level of education (2) | |||
| WP17.1 |
Estimating transition age schedules for long-term projections of global educational attainment ( IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU) |
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| WP17.2 |
Results of the New Wittgenstein Centre Population Projections by age, sex and level of education for 171 countries (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU) |
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| WP17.3 |
Labor force projections for Europe by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment, 2008 to 2053 (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU) |
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Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections
29 - 31 October 2013
Rome Italy