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Eurostat-UNECE Work session on demographic projections

25 - 27 November 2019
Belgrade Serbia

Document Title Documents Presentations
Information Note PDF  
Template for Papers (please prepare your paper using this template) DOCX  
Tentative Timetable PDF  
Report PDF  
Session 4 - Methodology
WP 1 Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions PDF PDF
WP 2 Relational spline-model for interpolating demographic data and population projections PDF PDF
Session 5 - Assumptions on migration
Forecasting migration by age, sex and region with extensions of Lee-Carter model   PDF
WP 4 Refugee immigration to Sweden, 2012-2018: a comparison of observed and projected numbers PDF PDF
Using administrative and statistical data sources for estimation of international migration trends for Serbia   PDF
Session 6 - Assumptions on fertility
WP 6 Are surveys on fertility intentions useful in projections? PDF PDF
WP 7 A study on the short-term fertility projection method using marriage rate - Population projections for the Republic of Korea, 2017-2067 PDF PDF
WP 8 Does one have to be healthy to opt to have children in Norway today? PDF PDF
WP 9 Ways to project fertility - how do European countries project fertility and what are their perceptions of current practices? PDF PDF
WP 10 Comparing fertility forecasting methods: how do parametric mixture models perform? PDF PDF
Revision of the fertility model applied in the national population projection for Belgium - integration of structural and cyclical components in the projection of the total fertility rate and the evolution of the fertility schedule   PDF
Session 7 - Communicating projections
WP 11 Taking the CES Recommendations on communicating population projections one step further: a joint exercise in the European Statistical System PDF PDF
Update on the UNECE Online Database on Population Projections Metadata   PDF
Session 8 - Population projections at national level
WP 12 Stochastic projections: the New Zealand experience PDF PDF
WP 13 Population projections 2018-2068 in Spain PDF PDF
Session 9 - Assumptions on mortality
WP 15 Future mortality in selected European countries, taking into account the impact of lifestyle epidemics PDF PDF
WP 16 European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving? PDF PDF
WP 17 U.S. Census Bureau's domestic and international population projections: current approaches to mortality projections PDF PDF
WP 18 Modelling frontier mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models PDF PDF
Session 10 - Workshop on future mortality (organized by Prof. Fanny Janssen)
Session 11 - Population projections at sub-national level
WP 19 Ex-post analysis of sub-national population projection errors for Ukraine and data quality problems PDF PDF
WP 20 Are we facing regional depopulation in Serbia? A subnational population projection PDF PDF