*Prepared by Cinzia Conti (Istat), Salvatore Strozza (University “Federico II” Napoli) and Enrico Tucci (Istat)
NOTE: The designations employed in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part
of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its
authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Economic Commission for Europe
Conference of European Statisticians
Group of Experts on Migration Statistics
Geneva, Switzerland, 26−28 October 2022
Item A of the provisional agenda
Improvements in use of administrative data for migration statistics
New citizens in Italy: number, characteristics and
behaviours
Note by Istat*
Abstract
After a first attempt made in June 2019th, researchers from the Italian National
Institute of Statistics (Istat), in cooperation with the University of Naples Federico II,
has implemented a new methodology for estimating the size, the characteristics and
the demographic behaviours of the national resident population that have acquired the
Italian citizenship. The paper describes the characteristics of the new citizens (origin,
age, sex, place of residence), reflects on the different attitudes in acquiring the
citizenship shown by the most important foreign communities and investigates the
reasons at the basis of the different choices. Furthermore, the paper focuses the
attention on one relevant demographic behaviours: emigration of foreigners and new
Italians. As for international migrations, the acquisitions of citizens are commonly
considered as an indicator of settlement and, also in the Italian case, new citizens show
a lower propensity to emigrate respect to ones that have not acquired the citizenship.
Nevertheless, it seems that recently a different behaviour is emerging as many new
Nationals, compare with the past, seem keener to exploit the possibility to move within
the European Union.
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Distr.: General
11 October 2022
English
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I. Introduction
1. In Italy, during the last decade, the public discussion about migration has been mainly focused
on the emergency of new arrivals by the sea. While the matter of the asylum seekers has been
crucial in the political debate, the issues relating to the long-term presence of foreigners and
to the integration process have been confined to the background. Over the years, however, the
population of foreign origin who live permanently in Italy has grown considerably. Population
with a migratory background has become a stable part of the Italian society. As a matter of
fact, many people with a foreign origin have become Italians, especially the ones who have
been residing in the country for a long time. Despite their important role both from social,
economic and demographic prospective, few and partial information were available about the
“new Italians”. In 2021, the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), by integrating
different data sources, made available new data about this target-population. These new
information allow us: 1) to quantify Italian residents who have acquired the Italian citizenship
at one specific point in time, 2) to study their main socio-demographic characteristics, 3) to
follow some of their behaviours over a period of time.
2. The estimations presented in this paper are the result of a complex work based on the activities
carried out by two research projects of Istat. The first project "Reception, integration and
citizenship: new approaches for the analysis of migration paths and models" had the aim to
provide adequate governance tools for increasingly complex phenomena, such as foreign
presence and integration of immigrants. The project, following a longitudinal and
multidimensional perspective, is aimed at reconstructing the different migration and inclusion
paths followed by several cohorts of migrants, paying special attention to the acquisition of
citizenship. In order to achieve these tasks the project exploit the progresses made in the
integration between administrative data and information from different statistical sources.
During the work it seemed really useful to integrate the results of the analysis with those of
another project “A measure of Italian emigration through integration and analysis of
administrative data”. The aim of this second project is to provide a measure of the migratory
phenomenon as far as possible free from administrative procedures and in line with the United
Nations recommendations on international migration statistics. To this end, the project
proposes the construction of a total population counting system at the micro level that allows
a longitudinal reading of the data and the possibility of following the movements of
individuals over time.
3. The cooperation between the two research teams, supported by the experts of the University
of Naples Federico II, made it possible to deepen the analysis of the aspects related to the
acquisition of citizenship in a broader demographic context where those who become Italian
citizens can be observed over time and their behaviours can be compared with those of
foreigners and Italians at birth.
II. Data and record linkages
4. The estimation procedure involves the integrated use of the different data sources for the
production of a single longitudinal archive consisting of individual records. Starting from the
stock 2011 individual census data, the first step consists in checking and merging the data
coming from Ministry of Interior (still necessary to obtain detailed information on the type of
acquisition) with the acquisitions identified by a longitudinal analysis of the individual
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variable “citizenship” in the population register. The database at the end of this step, therefore,
consists of all the individuals who have acquired the citizenship included those who are not
resident anymore.
5. In a second step, in order to estimate the number of the new Italian citizens (stock), the data
on the acquisitions of citizenship were integrated with that from the new micro-demographic
accounting information system (ANVIS). The integration between the micro-demographic
accounting information system and the data on the acquisitions of citizenship makes it possible
to identify the foreign resident population at birth and to observe whether or not these
individuals have acquired citizenship over time, have died, emigrated abroad, or have moved
on the Italian territory.
6. In this paper two regression models are used in order to study the propensity to acquire the
Italian citizenship and to migrate abroad. The first analysis is conducted through a longitudinal
approach. The models are described in the specific paragraphs.
III. The characteristics of new Italian citizens
7. At the beginning of 2020, new citizens residing in Italy were over one and a half million
(foreigners were about 5 million) and represent 2.5% of the total population [Istat, 2021; Istat,
2022]. They showed a significant increase in the last decade. In fact, in October 2011 (census
date), they did not reach 700 thousand people and at the previous census (in 2001) they were
less than 300 thousand.
8. People of Albanian and Moroccan origin are the most numerous, followed by Romanians,
Brazilians, Indians, Argentines, Peruvians, Tunisians, French and Macedonians.
9. These first 10 citizenships of origin cover only half of the new citizens living in Italy: they
represent an extremely complex and heterogeneous universe. It is to consider that the
estimations do not include only the immigrants and their children, but also the relatives and
descendants of Italian emigrants abroad (many from Brazil and Argentina) who have settled
in Italy and have applied for citizenship (Table 1). It should also be emphasized that some
citizenships of origin that are particularly important among foreigners, lose relevance in the
ranking of new citizens. At the basis of this evidence there are different reasons among which
the lesser interest in acquiring an Italian passport for the EU citizens (Romanians) or the
greater constraints imposed by legislation of some countries of origin (Chinese citizens).
10. With regard to demographic characteristics, in 56% of cases the new citizens are female, the
average age is less than 40 years (36.5 for men and 41.7 for women) with a share of under 20
closed to 22%, on the opposite side those over 60 who do not reach 15%. The new citizens
show an age structure between that of foreigners and that of Italians from birth (Fig.1). A
population therefore not negligible in terms of number and which could present interesting
peculiarities from the point of view of behaviours.
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Table 1 New citizens distinguished according to the first 20 previous citizenships and some
characteristics
Former country
of citizenship
V.a.
(thousands)
% by
citizenship
Acquisit.
x 100 foreig.
% acquis.
< 2012
% by
marriage
% born
in Italy
Albania 215,6 14,2 50,1 16,0 12,4 29,9
Marocco 199,4 13,1 47,6 19,7 15,7 37,2
Romania 92,4 6,1 7,9 34,0 31,5 14,9
Brazil 58,7 3,9 116,0 50,0 25,1 1,7
India 44,4 2,9 28,5 17,9 8,8 30,4
Argentina 39,1 2,6 391,8 85,8 20,7 1,2
Perù 37,5 2,5 39,4 31,1 24,3 18,6
Tunisia 37,1 2,4 38,4 31,2 17,3 39,5
France 33,3 2,2 105,5 97,3 34,9 2,4
North Macedonia 28,9 1,9 49,2 10,3 9,2 34,1
Ukraine 28,6 1,9 12,1 47,5 42,5 5,5
Germany 27,6 1,8 74,0 96,5 39,8 4,6
Russia (Fed.) 27,3 1,8 66,7 66,2 44,8 2,1
Egypt 27,1 1,8 20,3 39,5 21,2 36,2
Senegal 26,4 1,7 24,3 8,5 10,6 32,7
Moldova 25,5 1,7 18,1 19,4 31,6 13,1
Pakistan 25,5 1,7 20,7 5,4 7,7 33,2
Poland 24,2 1,6 26,7 67,0 53,7 8,9
Ecuador 23,2 1,5 30,5 21,9 24,6 19,6
Philippines 21,1 1,4 12,7 29,2 20,7 46,5
Other countries 474,1 31,3 31,0 56,5 29,9 18,1
TOTAL 1.516,6 100,0 29,1 40,0 23,9 22,1
Source: Istat, 2021
Figure 2 Demographic structure of Italians from birth, foreigners, and new citizens. Italy, beginning 2020
Italians from birth Foreigners New citizens
Males Females Males Females Males Females
Source: Istat 2021
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IV. The propensity to acquire the citizenship
11. Using a regression model it has been possible to measure the propensity to acquire the Italian
citizenship on the basis of different individual characteristics The citizenship of origin - even
in presence of the same other characteristics such as age, educational qualification, sex, access
to dual citizenship, etc. - has a very strong influence on the propensity to acquire citizenship.
It is worth remembering that citizenship summarizes the characteristics of the migration
model.
12. In order to conduct the analysis on a group of foreigners with the same "risk" to acquire the
citizenship, and considering that one determining factor for becoming Italian is the duration
of residence in Italy, it was decided to apply the logistic regression model to the cohort of
foreigners (aged over 14 years) who entered Italy in 2002 and still present in the 2011 census;
it is a total of almost 155,000 foreigners, coming from 179 countries. The logistic regression
model used has as a dichotomous dependent variable "citizenship acquired / citizenship not
acquired" and considers as predictors the following 13 variables relating to demographic and
social characteristics: 1) sex (females vs males); 2) age groups (at the census: 15-24, 25-34,
35-44 years vs 45 years and over); 3) type of family (at the census: couple without children,
couple with children, other vs single-member family); 4) educational level (at the census:
middle school, diploma of secondary school or degree vs primary school or no license); 5)
country of citizenship at birth (Romania, Ukraine, Morocco, Moldova, China, India, Other vs
Albania); 6) dual citizenship in the country of origin (recognised vs not recognised); 7) non-
EU membership (non-EU citizen vs EU citizen); 8) parents born in Italy (at least one vs none);
9) presence in Italy on 1 January 2020 (yes vs no); 10) type of presence (continuous vs
discontinuous); 11) interprovincial mobility (no vs at least one interprovincial migration); 12)
place of residence (at the census: North-West, North-East. Center vs South); 13) Working
condition (at the census: employed, housewife, other condition vs unemployed).
13. The caveats is that in the case of the variables referring to the Census and which over time
may have undergone undetectable changes such as the education, employment and family
conditions.
14. The regression model was performed with a variable selection technique called backward
elimination.
15. The results show that at the two opposite extremes are collocated the Indians with the largest
propensity to become Italian and the Chinese with the least (Table 2). As it was imaginable,
foreigners from non-EU countries have a greater willing to acquire citizenship than EU
citizens. People from countries that recognize dual citizenship are more inclined to become
Italian than those who come from countries that do not recognize this option. From the point
of view of individual characteristics, women and younger people show a greater inclination to
become Italian citizens than men and people aged 45 or older. Furthermore, a higher level of
education is associated with a greater propensity to acquire citizenship, as well as having a
job. With regard to family conditions, those who live in couples and, in particular, in couples
with children, have a greater inclination to apply for citizenship than foreigners that live alone.
16. People residing in the northern regions, particularly in the North-east, acquire more frequently
an Italian passport than foreigners residing in the South of Italy. But it is among the residents
of Central Italy that the propensity is lowest. In the South, acquisitions by descent play an
import role in rising the number of acquisitions of citizenship.
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Table 2 Results of the logistic regression model on the probability to become Italian citizen for the cohort of
foreigners over 14 years who entered Italy in 2002 (point estimation and range of the confidence interval)
Point estimation Range 95%
Centre vs South 0,948 0,904 0,994
North-east vs South 1,358 1,298 1,420
North-west vs South 1,082 1,034 1,131
Other typology vs one person 1,862 1,776 1,953
couple with children vs one person 2,594 2,484 2,709
Couple without children vs one person 2,775 2,637 2,920
Other condition vs not employed 1,231 1,165 1,301
Housewife vs Not employed 1,274 1,209 1,341
Employed vs Not employed 1,414 1,355 1,476
secondary school/degree vs primary school or nothing 1,976 1,892 2,063
middle school vs primary school or nothing 1,372 1,313 1,432
at least one parent born in Italy: Yes vs No 9,914 8,936 10,998
15-24 years vs 45 years and more 1,921 1,830 2,017
25-34 years vs 45 years and more 1,323 1,279 1,369
35-44 years vs 45 years and more 1,329 1,283 1,376
Interprovincial mobility: Yes vs No 1,242 1,200 1,285
Continuative presence in Italy:Yes vs No 1,436 1,296 1,591
Still present 1 gen 2020: Yes vs No 1,383 1,334 1,433
Eu citizen: Yes vs No 3,836 3,618 4,067
multiple citizenship in the country of origin: Yes vs No 1,350 1,296 1,407
Other countries vs Albania 0,961 0,924 1,000
Ukraine vs Albania 0,365 0,339 0,392
Romania vs Albania 0,735 0,684 0,789
Moldova vs Albania 0,675 0,635 0,717
Morocco vs Albania 1,234 1,174 1,296
India vs Albania 2,099 1,942 2,269
China vs Albania 0,043 0,036 0,051
Female vs male 1,538 1,496 1,580
a) All variables are significant (limit: 5%).
Source: Istat data analysed in Strozza, Conti, Tucci, 2021.
V. Acquisition of citizenship and international mobility
17. The new statistical system implemented by Istat makes it possible to measure this population
of new Italians and to study its main demographic and social characteristics. In this work we
want to take a further step forward, comparing the recent international migration of foreigners
and new Italians with a longitudinal approach. The basic question is if the acquisition of
citizenship is still today an indicator of stability in Italy, as often indicated in the literature.
Some scholars have highlighted how recently an important share of Italians who emigrate is
made up of people born abroad [Bonifazi 2018; Strozza and Tucci 2018]. It is therefore natural
to ask whether and how people who have acquired citizenship contribute to this phenomenon.
It must be considered that freedom of movement within the European Union changes the
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perspective and meaning of the acquisition of citizenship. In the European context, in which
national borders do not constitute a barrier to travel between EU countries, the acquisition of
citizenship of a Member State is increasingly taking shape of an access to European
citizenship. It may therefore be interesting to observe whether in the years following the
economic crisis of 2008, the acquisition of Italian citizenship represented for some new
Italians a factor in moving abroad, probably in countries with a better economic situation.
18. The data of the 2011 census, linked to those of the acquisitions of citizenship that occurred
after the census date and up to 2019, show that 856 thousand among the 4 million and 28
thousand foreigners residing as of 9 October 2011, have acquired the Italian citizenship.
Therefore, it will be possible to observe the propensity to leave Italy by the members of the
following three specific resident population groups: Italians by acquisition at the 2011 Census,
foreigners who acquired citizenship after the 2011 census and those who have remained
foreigners until 2020; in addition, the model considers also the reason at the basis of the
acquisition of citizenship.
19. Non-Eu adult citizens belonging to these population groups are observed over eight years
(from the date of the census to the end of 2019). The units of analysis are all adults with a
foreign citizenship at birth of a non-EU country, resident at the 2011 census date. A logistic
regression model has been used to evaluate the relationship between the probability of leaving
Italy and the citizenship status by comparing the behaviour of foreigners and new citizens.
Migration choices, as it is well known, change on the basis of individual and family
characteristics. A multiplicity of economic, social and cultural, subjective and contextual
factors generate complex projects of territorial mobility. The information collected at the 2011
census makes it possible to take into account several characteristics that could be related to
the propensity to leave the country of both foreigners and those who have acquired Italian
citizenship.
20. A total set of nine independent variables has been considered: 1. sex (women vs men); 2. age
classes (at the 2011 census date: 18-24, 25-34, 35-44 years vs 45 years and over); 3. type of
family (at the 2011 census date: single-family, couple with children, other vs couple without
children); 4. Level of education (at the 2011 census date: secondary license, diploma or degree
vs. no license or primary school); 5. country of citizenship at birth (Albania, Moldova, Ukraine,
Morocco, Tunisia, Philippines, India, Ecuador, Peru, Other vs China); 6. country of birth (Italy
vs abroad); 7. acquisition of Italian citizenship (before the census by marriage, before the census
for another reason, after the census by marriage, after the census for another reason vs foreigner);
8. place of the residence (at the census: North-West, North-East, Centre vs South); 9. working
condition (at the 2011 census date: unemployed, housewife, other condition vs. employed). A
backward elimination variable selection technique was used and all the variables of the initial
model were significant and used to estimate parameters and odds ratios.
21. According to the results of the logistic regression model, males show a higher propensity to
emigrate (Table 3). The age groups in which the propensity to move is greater are those of young
adults, people who were 25-34 years old at the 2011 census date. Moroccans, Indians and
Tunisians turn out to be quite mobile, while Filipinos, Albanians and Peruvians are the most
stable foreign communities in Italy. As widely highlighted in the literature, those who already
have a migratory experience show a greater propensity to move: those born abroad, in other
words immigrants, leave Italy more frequently than so-called natives. The economic and family
conditions are also aspects that are not secondary at all. In fact, those who are employed at the
time of the census have a lower propensity to emigrate abroad and the children, as well as the
couple, are confirmed as stabilizing factors. As regards the education, those with a diploma or a
degree do not show a slight different propensity than those with a lower level of education. The
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proposed analysis actually confirms that the acquisition of citizenship is an indicator of stability
in the area. As a matter of fact, those who had already acquired Italian citizenship, show a lower
propensity to emigrate than those who remained a foreigner. However, a change in attitude could
be glimpsed over time. In fact, those who acquired citizenship after the census have a lower
inclination to emigrate than foreigners, but a greater propensity than those who became Italian
before the census survey, both in the case of acquisition by marriage and for other reasons. This
is probably a sign that the acquisition of citizenship, in a context such as the European one in
which freedom of movement is guaranteed to passport holders from one of the EU states, is
taking on a different meaning, broader than in the past, and that international migrations are
often less definitive than one would like to believe.
Table 3 Results of the logistic regression model on the probability to emigrate abroad between 2012 and 2019 for
non-Eu born foreign adult residents at the 2011 Census (point estimation and range of the confidence interval)
Variables(a) / modalities Point estimation Range 95%
min. Max
Sex
- Female (ref. Male) 0,760 0,753 0,767
Age classes (ref: 45 years and more)
- 18-24 years 0,941 0,929 0,954
- 25-34 years 1,129 1,118 1,141
- 35-44 years 1,060 1,050 1,071
Type of family (ref. couple without children)
- Couple with children 0,930 0,919 0,942
- One person 1,168 1,151 1,185
- Others 1,051 1,037 1,066
Level of education (ref. primary school or nothing)
- middle school diploma 0,982 0,971 0,993
- Secondary school diploma or degree 1,002 0,991 1,013
Country of citizenship at birth (ref. China)
- Albania 0,613 0,601 0,625
- Ukraine 0,915 0,895 0,936
- Morocco 1,173 1,151 1,196
- Moldova 0,908 0,886 0,930
- Tunisia 1,332 1,297 1,368
- India 1,319 1,288 1,351
- Philippine 0,478 0,464 0,493
- Peru 0,741 0,720 0,762
- Ecuador 0,928 0,901 0,955
- Others 1,387 1,364 1,411
Country of birth: Italy (ref. Abroad) 0,894 0,862 0,929
Place of residence (ref. South and Isles)
- North-West 1,367 1,349 1,385
- North-East 1,578 1,557 1,599
- Centre 1,386 1,366 1,405
Working conditions (ref. Employed)
- Not employed 1,468 1,450 1,486
- housewife 1,559 1,540 1,578
- Others 1,774 1,755 1,793
Acquisition of Italian citizenship (ref. Not acquired)
- Acquired before Census for marriage 0,381 0,372 0,389
- Acquired before Census for other reasons 0,535 0,527 0,543
- Acquired after the Census for marriage 0,762 0,749 0,777
- Acquired after the Census for other reasons 0,777 0,768 0,786
(a) All variables are significant (limit: 5%).
Source: Istat data analysed in Strozza, Conti, Tucci, 2021.
22. A second migration cannot be considered exclusively as the conclusion of a failed experience,
but can be seen as a second or further phase of a complex process. Especially in a context in
which the so-called circular migrations are also spreading and in which the citizenship of a
European country becomes the "passport" to other destinations. This also explains why
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residents of the northern regions, particularly those of the North-east, have the highest
propensity to leave the country. It might seem counterintuitive given that these are the
territories where the level of integration should be higher. However, these are also areas where
the lower distance with other European countries and the absence of a border for those who
have obtained an Italian passport favours emigration.
23. A second migration cannot be considered exclusively as the conclusion of a failed experience,
but can be seen as a second or further phase of a complex process. Especially in a context in
which the so-called circular migrations are also spreading and in which the citizenship of a
European country becomes the "passport" to other destinations. This also explains why
residents of the northern regions, particularly those of the North-east, have the highest
propensity to leave the country. It might seem counterintuitive given that these are the
territories where the level of integration should be higher. However, these are also areas where
the lower distance with other European countries and the absence of a border for those who
have obtained an Italian passport favours emigration.
VI. Concluding remarks
24. At the end of analysis, we would like to propose some general reflection and discussion points:
25. Integrated and longitudinal database allows more reliable and comprehensive analysis for
monitoring the demographic and social dynamics regarding the population with a foreign
background. The case of “new Italian citizens” is emblematic and it shows how the integration
of data coming from administrative sources is crucial to provide new information about the
increasing complexity of migration phenomenon and integration process of foreigner citizens.
26. From a statistical point of view, should be stressed the importance of distinguishing the new
citizens from the nationals at birth to monitor the integration processes of those who have
acquired the citizenship and have a realistic picture of the population and its dynamics. This
issue draws attention to the need to define an adequate target population that can be monitored
in time and space. It has already been pointed out that it is not at all appropriate to identify
immigrant populations on the basis of the legal definition of citizenship [Haug et al. 2002]. In
fact, if the integration process is monitored only for people with foreign citizenship, the
resulting picture may be misleading. The example of international emigration from Italy
clearly points out the importance of considering the demographic dynamics of the “new
Italians”.
27. The analysis points out how the acquisition of citizenship in the European context is changing
its meaning and it could be useful a discussion about the use of “acquisition of citizenship” as
an indicator of definitive settlement in a specific country. In general, we have to reflect about
the fact that some extremely efficient indicators in the past could have partially lost their
explanatory capacity or - in any case - have partly changed their meaning.
28. In general, the research projects carried out underline the importance to exploit administrative
data and also the need to strengthen the cooperation between the National Statistical Institute,
other administrative bodies and the Universities in order to improve the availability and the
quality of data.
VII. References
Bonifazi, C., 2018, Da dove si parte, dove si va, in «Viaggio tra gli italiani all'estero. Racconto
di un paese altrove», Rivista Il Mulino, 6/2018, pp. 49-57
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Bonifazi, C., Conti, C., Ghio D. e Rottino F., Strozza, S., 2013, Cittadinanza attiva
[Active Citizenship], in Ministero dell’Interno e ISTAT (eds.), Integrazione. Conoscere,
Misurare, Valutare [Integration. Knowing, Measuring, Evaluating], Rome, pp. 103-120
Haug W., Compton P., Courbage Y., (editors), 2002, The demographic Characteristics of
Immigrant Population, Strasbourg Cedex, Council of Europe Publishing.
Istat, Cittadini non comunitari in Italia, anni 2020-2021, 2021
https://www.istat.it/it/files//2021/10/Cittadini-non-comunitari_2020_2021.pdf
Istat, Rapporto Annuale 2022. La situazione nel Paese, 2022b
https://www.istat.it/storage/rapporto-annuale/2022/Rapporto_Annuale_2022.pdf
Strozza S., Conti C., Tucci E., 2021, Nuovi cittadini. Diventare italiani nell’era della
globalizzazione. Bologna, Il Mulino.
Strozza, S. e Tucci, E., 2018, I nuovi caratteri dell'emigrazione italiana, in «Viaggio tra gli
italiani all'estero. Racconto di un paese altrove», Rivista Il Mulino, 6/2018, pp. 41-48
- I. Introduction
- II. Data and record linkages
- III. The characteristics of new Italian citizens
- IV. The propensity to acquire the citizenship
- V. Acquisition of citizenship and international mobility
- VI. Concluding remarks
- VII. References
