Armenia

Dear Colleagues. I would like to express my appreciation to everyone who has been involved in one way or another since the first phase of the project, our partners in Geneva and Bangkok, who are participating in this important event and, I hope, will participate in the project's future work.

It is known that the key issue for the correct construction of scenarios is the collection of data and their reliability. Let me briefly overview the issues we faced in the data collection process.

Some data was available ready-made, others required some work with primary sources to get the required entry format, and some other data were completely missing.

For example, residential energy consumption by types of energy consuming devices. By the way, the results of similar studies were available to our partners in Kazakhstan and Georgia. In RA, similar researches were also carried out within the framework of separate programs. It's been a decade since the last study was conducted, and it's vital to conduct regular studies. In this regard, the CEPA, the Comprehensive and Enhanced Cooperation Agreement signed between Armenia and the EU, which, among other norms, implies the introduction of the EU energy data collection standards in Armenia, inspires hope.

Another example is the energy consumption data of the commercial sector, universities, shopping centers, hospitals, which are essentially missing. Although this data is available in principle, in the absence of legislative requirements, its collection is very labor intense. For example, while the data on gas and electricity customers can be kindly provided by our esteemed partners of Gasprom and ENA, the classification of real estate object by purpose in the state cadastre database is simply missing.

Transport sector. Relatively accurate data on CNG vehicles has been available after the legislative requirement for licensing and registration of gas vessels verification came into force. However, the exact number of vehicles previously converted from gasoline to run on compressed gas is uncertain. Vehicles imported into RA are registered also by fuel type, but clear data on further modifications of the cars are problematic.

In cases of unavailability of actual data, the calculation methods used can offer approximate data. Therefore, some data may appear inaccurate or disputed. However, it should be kept in mind that today's goal is to present the actual model and the obtained preliminary results based on the available data. They should be thoroughly verified in the upcoming phase of the project.

Thanks for your attention.

Հարգելի գործընկերներ. Նախ կցանկանայի շնորհակալություն հայտնել բոլոր նրանց, ովքեր այս կամ այն կերպ ներգրավված են եղել ծրագրի առաջին փուլից ի վեր, այդ թվում նաև մեր Ժնևի և Բանգկոկի գործընկերներին, ինչպես նաև բոլոր գործընկերներին, որքեր այսօր մասնակցում են այս կարևոր միջոցառմանը և, հուսով եմ կմասնակցեն ծրագրի հետագա աշխատանքներին։

Հայտնի է, որ սցենարների ճիշտ կառուցման համար առանցքային խնդիր է տվյալների հավաքագրմումը և դրանց հավաստիությունը։ Կցանկանայի համառոտ ակնարկ կատարել տվյալների հավաքագրման գործընթացում խնդիրների մասին:

Որոշ տվյալներ հասանելի էին պատրաստի տեսքով, մյուսները պահանջում էին կատարել որոշակի աշխատանք՝ առաջնային աղբյուրների տվյալների մուտքագրման անհրաժեշտ ձևաչափը ստանալու համար, իսկ այլ տվյալներ ամբողջությամբ բացակայում էին:

Օրինակ՝ բնակելի հատվածում էներգիայի սպառման տվյալները ըստ էներգիա սպառող սարքերի տեսակների: Ի դեպ, նմանատիպ ուսումնասիրությունների արդյունքները Ղազախստանի և Վրաստանի գործընկերներին հասանելի էին։ ՀՀ-ում նման հետազոտություններ նույնպես կատարվել են առանձին ծրագրերի շրջանակներում։ Սակայն վերջին նման ուսումնասիրությունը իրականացվել է մոտ 10 տարի առաջ։ Մինչ դեռ անհրաժեշտ է, որ նման ուսումնասիրությունները կատարվեն պարբերաբար, կանոնավոր կերպով։ Այս առումով հույս է ներշնչում ՀՀ-ի և ԵՄ-ի միջև կնքված CEPA՝ Համապարփակ և խորացված համագործակցության համաձայնագիրը, որը ի թիվս այլ նորմերի, ենթադրում է Հայաստանում էներգետիկ տվյալների հավաքագրման եվրոպական չափանիշների ներդրում։

Մեկ այլ օրինակ է առևտրային հատվածի, ԲՈՒՀ-երի, առևտրի կենտրոնների, հիվանդանոցների էներգասպառման տվյալները, որոնք ըստ էության բացակայում են: Թեպետ այս տվյալները սկզբունքորեն հասանելի են, սակայն օրենսդրական պահանջների բացակայության պայմաններում դրանց հավաքագրումն շատ աշխատատար խնդիր է։ Օրինակ, եթե գազի և էլեկտրաէներգիայի ոլորտների բաժանորդների վերաբերյալ տվյալները կարող են սիրալիր կերպով տրամադրել Գազարդի և ՀԷՑ-ի մեր հարգելի գործընկերները, ապա պետական կադաստրի տվյալների բազայում անշարժ գույքի՝ ըստ նպատակային նշանակության դասակարգումը պարզապես բացակայում է։

Տրանսպորտի ոլորտ: Սեղմված բնական գազով աշխատող տրանսպորտային միջոցների ճշգրիտ տվյալները առկա է լիցենզավորման և հաշվառման օրենսդրական պահանջը ուժի մեջ մտնելուց ի վեր։ Սակայն նախկինում ձևափոխված բենզինից սեղմված գազով աշխատելու համար տրանսպորտային միջոցների ճշգրիտ քանակը անորոշ է: ՀՀ ներկրվող տտրանսպորտային միջոցը հաշվառվում է դրա վառելիքի տեսակի նշումով, սակայն հետագա ձևափոխումների մասին հստակ տվյալները խնդրահարույց են։

Փաստացի տվյալների անհասանելիության դեպքերում օգտագործվող հաշվարկային մեթոդները կարող են առաջարկել մոտավոր տվյալներ: Հետևաբար, որոշ տվյալներ կարող են երևալ ոչ ճշգրիտ կամ վիճելի: Սակայն, պետք է նկատի ունենալ, որ այսօրվա նպատակն է ներկայացնել բուն մոդելը և ձեռք բերված նախնական արդյունքները՝ առկա տվյալների հիման վրա։ Դրանք ծրագրի առաջիկա փուլում պետք է հիմնովին ճշտվեն:

Շնորհակալություն ուշադրության համար:

Experience with SDG7 Roadmap scenarios

for Georgia

Margalita Arabidze Head of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policy and

Sustainable Development Department

May 13, 2024

Development of Energy Sector

Recently adopted main legislative documents: • Law on Energy and Water Supply ;

• Law on Renewable Energy ;

• Law on Energy Efficiency ;

• Law on Energy Performance in Buildings ;

• Secondary Legislation has been partially implemented; additional legislation based on aforementioned laws are currently in development;

• Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Climate Strategy and Action Plan (CSAP)

Important Development • NECP 2021-2030 development (EE, RE and GHG targets);

• Energy Market Liberalization ;

• Active development and Support Schemes for RE;

• Practical implementation of EE, EPB and RE laws’ goals

• Increasing Energy Interconnection and Transit Potential of the country;

Sustainable Development Goals in the field of energy

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 7:

Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

Target 7.1

Georgia will ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy

services throughout the county by 2030.

Target 7.2

Georgia will Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in

the energy mix by 2030

Target 7.3

Georgia will double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency

by 2030

Target 7.1

Georgia will ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy

services throughout the county by 2030.

National Policy

Indicators 7.1.1 Proportion of population with access to electricity; 7.1.2 Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technologies 7.1.3 Proportion of population with access to reliable and modern energy

Activities

‘Georgia’s Regional Development Strategy for 2014 – 2021’

Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

Freedom, Rapid Development, Prosperity – Government Program 2018 - 2020

Solar PV Installation for the electricity off- grid settlements

Construction of electricity infrastructure

Georgia’s Rural Development Strategy 2017 - 2020

2030 100%

2019 100%

2015 99%

2030 75%

2019 75%

2015 60%

2030 2019 58,8%

Gasification Plan 2019-2021

Gasification Plan 2022-2024

Target 7.2

By 2030, significant increase of renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption

in Georgia .

National Policy

Indicator

Renewable energy (hydro, geothermal, solar, biofuel and waste) shares in the total final energy consumption will equal to 27.4%

Activities

‘Main State Policy directions in Georgia’s Energy Sector’

Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

National Renewable Energy Action Plan

Freedom, Rapid Development, Prosperity – Government Program 2018 - 2020

2030 27.4%

2018 20%

2015 26.76%

The Law on Encouraging the Production and Use of Energy from Renewable Sources was adopted. • Resolution of the Government of

Georgia: Support scheme for production and use of energy from renewable sources (hydropower plants)

A micro power plant (up to 500 kW) can generate electricity for its own consumption and at the same time supply the distribution company with excess electricity In 2019, a total of 156 subscribers were registered in the net metering system, with a total capacity of 2,158 kW. In 2016-2019, 490 MW total installed capacity stations were put into operation, incl. 1 wind

Target 7.3

By 2030, significant increase the rate of improvement in energy efficiency in Georgia

National Policy

Indicator Energy intensity is expected to be 5,787 GDP/TJ by current price (2014 year’s price) in Georgia by 2030 which equals current energy consumption minus 10%

‘Main State Policy directions in Georgia’s Energy Sector’

Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

‘National Energy Efficiency Action Plan’

Freedom, Rapid Development, Prosperity – Government Program 2018 - 2020

2030 5,787

2018 5,893

2015 6,43

Energy Efficiency Law

Energy Performance of Buildings

Law on Energy Labelling

Activities

Cooperation with UNESCAP: Workshop on NEXSTEP

The high-level workshop - “2030 Sustainable Development Goals “ was held in MoESD on 14th of February 2019.

The meeting was attended by: UNESCAP, Deputy Ministers of MoESD and MFA, Executive Director of GeoStat.

The main stakeholders were presented from: MEPA, MFA, GNERC, GTU, EEC, CENN, GGTC, UNDP, GEDF, Parliament of Georgia and other public and private entities

The workshop was divided into 7 sessions. Out of which 3 breakout sessions, where participants were divide into groups and work on:

• Discussing and identifying nationally relevant measures to achieve the SDG7 targets

• Identifying the output needed from the roadmap to enable policy decisions for SDG7

• identifying the interlinkages of SDG7 targets with other SDGs

NEXSTEP Platform www.nexstepenergy.org

National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP)

Georgia was a pioneer in using ESCAP’s National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) and was among the first countries in the region to develop a Sustainable Development Goal 7 Roadmap. The success of this cooperative effort is testament to our shared ambition for Georgia and the region to deliver on the sustainable energy vision of SDG 7.

The Roadmap proposed by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development (MoESD) of Georgia contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider. It presents several scenarios that have been developed using national data, and which consider existing energy policies and strategies, and reflect on other development plans.

These scenarios are expected to enable the Government to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDC.

Georgia’s SDG 7 Roadmap

Georgia’s SDG7 Roadmap, prepared with ESCAP and published in December 2020 is an important tool for planning the energy sector, which will enable Georgia to develop the right policies for the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 7.

 The key objective of this SDG 7 Roadmap is to assist us develop enabling policy measures to achieve the SDG 7 targets.

 More information on SDG 7 Roadmap and its policy can be found on the following link: Georgia’s SDG7 Roadmap

Electrification of public transport fleet in Georgia

The report of Electrification of public transport fleet in Georgia presents an overview on the present conditions of transport and anticipate future advancements in the integration of electric mobility into the public transport networks of Georgia. The focus of the report is on two cities, namely Tbilisi and Batumi, where several significant initiatives have already been undertaken. It also includes a suggested outline for policy framework for electrification of public transport in Georgia.

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Thank you for your attention! [email protected]

Results and key findings SDG 7 Roadmap for Armenia

Anis Zaman ESCAP

13 May 2024

Second National Stakeholder Consultation Workshop and Capacity Building on the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) for the SDG 7 Roadmap for Armenia

Objective of this Presentation

Provide: - Brief introduction to the modelling methodology - Current energy situation (2021) - Highlights of energy transition pathways (scenarios)

Invite stakeholders’ feedback: - Modelling data and assumptions used - Proposed energy transition interventions

Model Structure

Key Assumptions

Population

No. Households

GDP

Population Growth Rate

GDP Growth Rate

Demand

Industry

Cement and non-metallic

products

Mining

Food and beverages

Iron and steel

+7 other sub- sectors

Transport

Road Transport

Road – Passenger

Cars

Motorcycles

Buses

Tractors

Road - Freight

Trucks

Rail Transport Air Transport

Residential

Urban

Electrified

Electric Appliances

Cooking

Heating

Rural

Electrified

Electric Appliances

Cooking

Heating

Commercial

Government building

Healthcare Facilities

Educational Institution

Other buildings

Other

Agriculture

Non-specific energy use

Transformation

Electricity Generation

Heating Generation

Transmission and Distribution

Effects – GHG Emissions

Power and Heat

Demand sectors

Resources

Primary

Secondary

Scenario Development Process in LEAP

Data Collection – bottom-up approach • Cooking distribution and intensity data • Appliance ownership consumption intensity • Heating distribution and intensity data

Residential

• Fuel consumption data (i.e. electricity, oil products)Industry

• Vehicle statistics (i.e. number of vehicles by fuel type) • Annual travelled mileage, passenger load factor, fuel

economy Transport

• Floorspace data • Electricity and fuel consumption intensity (kWh/m2)Commercial

• Existing capacity and generation • Planned power capacity expansionPower

• Governmental reports/surveys

• Governmental databases

• International organisation databases

• Benchmarking

• Research papers etc.

Data Sources

Current situation of the energy sector Base year 2021

Energy Situation in 2021 Armenia’s 2021 status for the SDG 7 indicators and GHG emissions

ACCESS TO MODERN ENERGY

6.9 MtCO2-e

Considering the energy sector only

RENEWABLE ENERGY

6% of TFEC Excluding traditional biomass usage in residential cooking and

heating

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

4.0 MJ/USD Primary energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy

and GDP (PPP, 2017)

GHG EMISSIONS

100% Population with access to

electricity in 2021

98.6% Population with access to

clean cooking in 2021

TFEC and TPES, 2021 Total final energy consumption (TFEC) in 2021 by Sector

2.84 Mtoe

Total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2021 by Fuel

3.75 Mtoe

Residential 33.8%

Transport 31.7%

Commercial 15.3%

Industry 13.1% Agriculture

3.6%

Non-energy use

2.6%

Natural Gas 60.7%

Oil Products 15.7%

Nuclear 13.5% Hydropower

5.8%

Biomass 3.1%

Renewables 0.8%

Coal 0.3%

Energy Balance 2021

Fossil fuel makes up a large portion of Armenia’s energy flows.

Unit: Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (kToe)

Access to modern energy in 2021

• The electrification rate in Armenia was already 100 per cent in 2021

• The clean cooking access was 98.6 per cent in 2021

• Around 10,706 households still relied on unclean and polluting kerosene and biomass stoves as their primary cooking technology

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Urban Rural Total

City Gas Electric Stove Biomass Stove

Energy intensity target setting

• Energy efficiency improvement rate to achieve the SDG 7.3 target requires the energy intensity to drop to 2.9 MJ/US$ in 2030.

• The CAGR between 2021 and 2030 must be around 29.6 per cent which is a challenge.

• NEXSTEP analysis suggests to align with the global target of 3.4 per cent, reaching 2.9 MJ/US$.

-7.3%

-14.5%

0.2%

-29.6%

-3.4%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Armenia Baseline Improvement rate

(1990 -2010) SDG 7.3 target for

Armenia (2010 - 2030)

Armenia EE Improvement rate

(2010 - 2021) SDG 7.3 target for

Armenia (2021 - 2030)

Global Suggested Improvement rate

(UNSD, 2022)

An nu

al im

pr ov

em en

t r at

e

GHG emissions in 2021

• Emissions calculated based on IPCC Tier 1 emission factors in terms of 100-year GWP values.

• For the energy sector emissions were estimated at 6.9 MtCO2-e

• Transport sector emissions were the largest at 2.4 MtCO2-e

• Power generation and residential sectors each at 1.6 MtCO2-e.

• Commercial, industry and agriculture sectors together 1.3 MtCO2-e

Scenarios development 2030 Assumptions, growth factors and constraints

The baseline – Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario

Assessing the gap – Current Policy Scenario (CPS)

Meeting the SDG and NDC targets – Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Scenario

Beyond 2030 - Towards Net Zero Scenarios

Scenarios

Key Growth Projections and Assumptions Parameters Business as usual scenario Current policy scenario Sustainable Development Goal scenario

Economic growth 12.6 per cent between 2021 and 2022, 8.7 per cent between 2022 and 2023, 5.7 per cent between 2023 and 2024, and 6 per cent per annum from

2024

Population growth -0.48 per cent per annum1

Urbanization rate 67 per cent in 2021, growing to 68 per cent in 20302

Commercial floor space Assumed annual energy consumption increasing at the same growth as GDP

Industrial activity Assumed annual energy consumption increasing at the same growth as GDP

Transport activity Passenger transport activities and freight transport activities are assumed growing at a rate like the growth in GDP per capita

Residential activity The appliance ownership for electrical appliances is projected to grow at a rate like the growth in GDP per capita.

Access to electricity The 100 per cent access to electricity has been achieved.

Access to clean cooking fuels Projected based on the historical penetration rate between the 2000-2020 period.

100 per cent clean cooking access rate is expected to be achieved by 2026

Energy efficiency Additional energy efficiency measures not applied Improvement based on current policies Global improvement in energy intensity

adopted

Power plant Considers 2021 RE share in power generation and

grid emissions Considers capacity expansion provided by Armenia

[1] Historical data and estimation from Asian Development Bank [2] This assumes that the urbanisation rate grows with an annual rate of 0.16 per cent, with reference to the national historical urbanisation growth from 2010 to 2020.

SDG scenario

Achieving SDG 7 Targets in 2030

SDG 7 Targets

7.1.1 Access to Electricity – 100% by 2030

7.1.2 Access to Clean Cooking Fuel – 100% by 2030

7.1.3 Renewable Energy in TFEC – no set target

7.1.4 Energy efficiency – doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency

SDG and NDC Targets

a mitigation target of Armenia’s NDC that will be that the emissions will need to cap at 13.6

MtCO2-e from the energy sector by 2030.

Access to modern energy in 2030

Access to Electricity

• Universal clean cooking is likely to be achieved under the current policy settings

• Based on the historical improvement rate, Armenia is expected to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2026

Access to Clean Cooking

• Universal access to electricity is already achieved

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cl ea

n co

ok in

g ac

ce ss

ra te

(% )

Historical trend BAU/CPS SDG

Technology Annualized cost

Electric cooking stove US$ 164

Natural gas stove US$ 98

Energy Demand in 2030

• By 2030, in all scenarios, the Transportation sector consumption will be by far still the largest followed by the power and residential sectors.

• Adoption of energy efficiency measures in the SDG scenario might reduce around 0.3 Mtoe compared to the CP scenario.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Base year CPS SDG En

er gy

d em

an d

(M to

e)

Transport Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture Non-energy use

Energy saving opportunities in 2030

Sector Measure Energy demand

reduction in 2030 (ktoe)

Residential The development of energy- efficient construction 16.0

Transport Improve fuel economy of passenger cars and trucks 165.6

Industry

Financing measures for modernizing technological processes and equipment and introducing energy-saving measures in all industries

69.8

Commercial An increase in the share of purchased energy-efficient equipment

91.7

Total 343.1

Sector/area Measure Energy demand reduction in 2030

(ktoe)

Residential Cooking

Adoption of electric cook stoves to 25% in urban and 10% in rural areas in 2030

22.0

Residential Heating

15% heat pumps in urban and promote electric heaters to 25% in rural areas.

71.3

Residential MEPS For lighting, refrigeration, and television

40.9

Commercial External insulation of commercial buildings 58.9

Industry Deep retrofitting to reduce thermal loss 44.9

Transport EV penetration by 20% 68.9

Total 306.9

Energy demand reduction in 2030 (ktoe) in CPS, compared to BAU

Energy demand reduction in 2030 (ktoe) in SDG scenario, compared to CPS

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

En er

gy sa

vi ng

(M to

e)

Residential Industry Commercial Transport

Energy Intensity (MJ/USD) in 2030

Energy demand reduction of 0.3 Mtoe in 2030 compared to the CP scenario helps improving energy intensity. 2.8

3.1

3.5

4.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

SDG 2030

CPS 2030

BAU 2030

Baseyear 2021

MJ/US$

Energy Intensity

Energy efficiency improvement target

Renewable Energy Renewables share in TFEC Renewables share in power generation

6.0% 6.6%

9.9%

12.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Base year BAU CPS SDG

2021 2030

% RE

in T

FE C

TP ES

(M to

e)

Natural gas Oil products Nuclear Hydropower

Biomass Renewables Coal %RE in TFEC

30.9% 31.0%

47.6%

52.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

BAU CPS SDG

Base year 2021 2030

RE c

ap ac

iit y

sh ar

e in

p ow

er (%

)

Po w

er g

en er

at io

n (T

W h)

CHP Single Gas Turbine Nuclear Hydro

Solar Wind Geothermal RE share (%)

Emissions in 2030 • The mitigation target of Armenia’s NDC that will be a 40 per cent reduction in total national greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 level.

Progress towards SDG 7 Targets for 2030

Energy transition beyond 2030

Net Zero Emissions by 2050

Towards Net Zero by 2050 Additional demand and GHG emission reduction can be realized through the following:

2031 - 2050 • Adoption of 100 per cent

electric cook stoves by 2050

• Adoption of 100 percent electric vehicles for road transport by 2050

• Fuel switching to electricity in the industry sector

• Decarbonise power sector using renewable system with BESS

• Decarbonise heating sector with heat pump

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

BAU CPS SDG TNZ

En er

gy d

em an

d (M

to e)

Transport Commercial Residential Industry Agriculture Non-energy use

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

GH G

EM IS

SI O

N (M

tC O

2- e)

Transport Electricity Generation Residential Commercial Industry Agriculture BAU

Policy recommendations/Conclusion

1. Increasing the efficiency of energy use in all economic sectors should be pursued. The presence of a national energy efficiency plan will help Armenia reduce its energy intensity by 2030. Additional measures in the SDG scenario can reduce energy demand further.

2. Transport electrification provides multi-fold benefits in the long run. Vigorous adoption of electric vehicles reduces the demand for oil products, hence reducing Armenia’s reliance on imported petroleum fuels.

3. Decarbonisation of the power supply is the key to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. It provides the highest potential in GHG emission reduction as well as improves energy security

4. Enabling policy measures are required to improve clean cooking by 2030. The adoption of electric cookstoves by at least 20 per cent of the population will significantly help improve energy security and reduce emissions.

Thank you

ESCAP

13 May 2024

Virtual Workshop on Stakeholder Consultation and Capacity Building on the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) for the SDG 7 Roadmap for Armenia

Introduction to Online Portal and Capacity Building Tool

Agenda

• Introduction to NEXSTEP Web Tool • Tool layout & components • Viewing component results and performing analyses • User accessibility and maintenance

• Web Tool Practical Walk-Through • Capacity building with NEXSTEP e-Learning module

Main Components https://nexstepenergy.org

Component 1: Energy Modelling

Data Collection Energy Modelling Results Visualisation on Web Tool

Component 1: Energy Modelling Toggle between scenarios …

Component 1: Energy Modelling … and indicators.

Component 1: Energy Modelling

Tracking progress towards SDG 7 and NDC

Results for SDG Scenario

Component 2: Economic Analysis Economic Analysis for Power Technologies (LCOE) and Clean Cooking Technologies (annualised cost)

Results provided in both chart and table format

Component 2: Economic Analysis Data Input for Economic Analysis

Data Input for: • Basic Parameters (i.e. carbon price,

electricity tariff) • Fuel Prices • Technological Parameters (i.e. capacity

factor, efficiency, CAPEX)

Standalone module

Component 3: Scenario Analysis Ranking of scenarios based on 12 criteria

i.e. emissions, investment costs, SDG 7 targets achievement

Users are allowed to make changes to the weightage of the criteria

Sample Country

Work in Progress Policy Recommendations

Roadmap

COUNTRY: ABC

City

City

Pakistan

Fiji

Georgia

Fiji

Conclusion

NEXSTEP web tool :

• Informs about scenario results visualisation

• Provides cost analysis for power and clean cooking technologies

• Enables prioritisation of scenarios to inform future policies

• Provides consolidation of policy recommendations and roadmap

Web Tool Practical Walk-Through

https://nexstepenergy.org/

Workshop valuation

https://forms.office.com/r/FqwDZJCjW1

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in NEXSTEP

• NEXSTEP applies MCDA to rank scenarios based on the country-specific priorities.

• To identify which scenario is more important than others and thus prioritizing policy measures

• To support policymakers in making informed policy decisions by learning economic, social and environmental priorities at local, national and international levels.

The criteria development and weighting is best done in a stakeholder consultation workshop. If

deemed necessary, this step can be repeated using the NEXSTEP tool in consultation amongst

stakeholders where the participants may want to change weights of each criterion.

How is MCDA used in NEXSTEP?

• The NEXSTEP analysis evaluates scenarios and ranks using the Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool based on a set of 12 criteria and weights assigned to each criterion.

Setting weight of each criterion

• Please go to www.menti.com and use the code 3149 7454 • Users/stakeholders to allocate weights in terms of relative importance

of each criterion. • If a criterion is believed to be not applicable, allocation should be zero • The total weight needs to be 100 per cent. • Click submit when done

• The value from each participant will be aggregated automatically

Allocate weights in terms of the relative importance of each criterion. You can put any value

Set zero if you think it is not important/applicable

Total value must be 100 (you can see how many point left)

Development of SDG 7 Road Map for Armenia Vitaly Bekker, consultant UNECE

Outline

• How to plan for Sustainable Development Goal 7? • Background of SDG 7 roadmap development • What is an SDG 7 roadmap and how it helps? • NEXSTEP methodology • Anticipated results • Developing SDG 7 roadmap using NEXSTEP • Contents of a roadmap

Global framework for SDG 7

7.1 ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services

7.2 increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix

7.3 double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency

Proportion of population with access to electricity

Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology

Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption

Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP

GOAL TARGETS INDICATORS

SDG definition of clean cooking fuel: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-01-02.pdf SDG definition of renewable energy: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-02-01.pdf SDG definition of energy intensity: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-03-01.pdf

An integrated approach to 2030 energy transition

An integrated tool to assist policymakers make informed policy decisions that would help achieve

sustainable energy transition.

National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP)

Economic performance of

scenarios

e.g. investments, CBA, etc.

STEP 1

Energy, emissions and investment

modelling LEAP

Emission constraints and reduction targets

Renewable energy resources data

STEP 3

Scenario /Policy

analysis MCDA

OUTPUT Policy

recommendations

Enabling policy measures for each

SDG7 target

Historical energy data

Macroecono mic data e.g. GDP growth

rate

Demographic data

U se

r i nt

er fa

ce

Energy transition scenarios

Using the output from modelling, energy

transition scenarios to achieve the SDG7

targets (in agreement with the NDC target),

will be identified.

STEP 2

Economic analysis of scenarios

Performance indicators

Macro and micro economic

parameters

Evaluation criteria

Review of policies and best practices

NEXSTEP methodology

The unique feature of this methodology is the backcasting

approach for energy and emissions modelling which is

important for the case of SDG7 planning.

Methodology – Component 1

• Modelling of energy and emissions is undertaken using Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP)

• Helps to develop a number of scenarios • Using various demographic and macro-economic

data and information

• The Least Cost Optimization method is used to calculate the optimal expansion and dispatch of the electric power system

Methodology - Component 2

• Economic analysis involves • Estimating the cost of electricity supply plus local

generation (if any) • Identify the cheapest option of electricity generation,

E.g. • Fuel switching • Contracting – through PPA, RE Auction, etc.

• Helps make a decision on future power supply options • Assess the potential for increasing share or RE in

power

Methodology – Component 3 • Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a

popular tool in the public and private sector to help in making a policy decision

• It enables compare and contrast various policies and scenarios using a set of defined indicators

• Ideally this is done in a stakeholder consultation workshop

• Assessing criteria should represent a wide range of stakeholders • Helps to avoid any bias • Weights are chosen in consensus

STEP 3

Scenario /Policy

analysis MCDA

OUTPUT Policy

recommendations

Enabling policy measures for each

SDG7 target

Evaluation criteria

Review of policies and best practices

Expected output

• Energy demand and supply scenarios – BAU, CPS, SDG and ambitious scenarios.

• Technology identification and prioritisation for each scenario, • Policy options to achieve the targets of SDG7 and NDC, • Investment estimation and cost-benefit analysis for each

scenario; • Marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), • Levelised cost of Electricity (LCOE)

Progress towards SDG 7 Targets for 2030 in Armenia

NEXSTEP online portal

• Data from LEAP are extracted and uploaded on to the portal

• Can be accessed from anywhere • Data and graphs can be

downloaded • Policy recommendations can be

viewed • Customised reports can be

generated

NEXSTEP – capacity building NEXSTEP online portal LCOE estimation

Online training module

Energy appliances database

E-learning Program: SDG 7 roadmap development using NEXSTEP: Module 3: NEXSTEP Tool

SDG 7 roadmap development process using NEXSTEP

Country engagement

Receive request from country

Recruit national consultant

First mission – stakeholder identification

Data collection

Share data template

Data collected by consultant and stakeholders

Modelling

Energy & emissions modelling

Cost-benefit analysis

Scenario analysis and ranking

Policy analysis and

recommendations

Capacity building

ESCAP undertakes

second mission

Hands-on training on using

NEXSTEP

Country team develops the draft

roadmap

Stakeholder consultation on

the draft roadmap

Roadmap

Refinement, adjustment (if

any)

Country team finalizes the

roadmap

National acceptance

Country team and consultant prepare a summary

Summary submitted to government

Roadmap is officially

published and launche

Structure of the roadmap

Introduction

Backgroun d

Targets and

indicators for the country

Emission reduction

target

NEXSTEP methodology

Key steps

Scenario definitions

Economic analysis

Overview of the energy sector

Current situation

Energy profile of the country

Existing policies &

targets

Energy resources

Energy balance

Energy demand outlook

SDG 7 targets by

2030

Energy demand

Achieving key goals and

targets

Power generation

Policy actions

Raising ambition

Enhancing EE

Fossil fuel phase out

Price on carbon

Green financing

MACC

COVID-19 recovery

Importance of sust. energy

Reducing financial risks

Savings from the energy

sector Restructuring

fiscal measures

Revisiting existing policies

Comparing CPs and NEXSTEP

analysis

Identifying gaps

Recommendati ons to bridge

the gap

Executive summary • Summary for policymakers • Key results and findings • Important policy directions

Thank you

ESCAP

13 May 2024

Virtual Workshop on Stakeholder Consultation and Capacity Building on the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) for the SDG 7 Roadmap for Armenia

Introduction to Online Portal and Capacity Building Tool

Agenda

• Introduction to NEXSTEP Web Tool • Tool layout & components • Viewing component results and performing analyses • User accessibility and maintenance

• Web Tool Practical Walk-Through • Capacity building with NEXSTEP e-Learning module

Main Components https://nexstepenergy.org

Component 1: Energy Modelling

Data Collection Energy Modelling Results Visualisation on Web Tool

Component 1: Energy Modelling Toggle between scenarios …

Component 1: Energy Modelling … and indicators.

Component 1: Energy Modelling

Tracking progress towards SDG 7 and NDC

Results for SDG Scenario

Component 2: Economic Analysis Economic Analysis for Power Technologies (LCOE) and Clean Cooking Technologies (annualised cost)

Results provided in both chart and table format

Component 2: Economic Analysis Data Input for Economic Analysis

Data Input for: • Basic Parameters (i.e. carbon price,

electricity tariff) • Fuel Prices • Technological Parameters (i.e. capacity

factor, efficiency, CAPEX)

Standalone module

Component 3: Scenario Analysis Ranking of scenarios based on 12 criteria

i.e. emissions, investment costs, SDG 7 targets achievement

Users are allowed to make changes to the weightage of the criteria

Sample Country

Work in Progress Policy Recommendations

Roadmap

COUNTRY: ABC

City

City

Pakistan

Fiji

Georgia

Fiji

Conclusion

NEXSTEP web tool :

• Informs about scenario results visualisation

• Provides cost analysis for power and clean cooking technologies

• Enables prioritisation of scenarios to inform future policies

• Provides consolidation of policy recommendations and roadmap

Web Tool Practical Walk-Through

https://nexstepenergy.org/

Workshop valuation

https://forms.office.com/r/FqwDZJCjW1

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in NEXSTEP

• NEXSTEP applies MCDA to rank scenarios based on the country-specific priorities.

• To identify which scenario is more important than others and thus prioritizing policy measures

• To support policymakers in making informed policy decisions by learning economic, social and environmental priorities at local, national and international levels.

The criteria development and weighting is best done in a stakeholder consultation workshop. If

deemed necessary, this step can be repeated using the NEXSTEP tool in consultation amongst

stakeholders where the participants may want to change weights of each criterion.

How is MCDA used in NEXSTEP?

• The NEXSTEP analysis evaluates scenarios and ranks using the Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool based on a set of 12 criteria and weights assigned to each criterion.

Setting weight of each criterion

• Please go to www.menti.com and use the code 3149 7454 • Users/stakeholders to allocate weights in terms of relative importance

of each criterion. • If a criterion is believed to be not applicable, allocation should be zero • The total weight needs to be 100 per cent. • Click submit when done

• The value from each participant will be aggregated automatically

Allocate weights in terms of the relative importance of each criterion. You can put any value

Set zero if you think it is not important/applicable

Total value must be 100 (you can see how many point left)

Development of SDG 7 Road Map for Armenia Vitaly Bekker, consultant UNECE

Outline

• How to plan for Sustainable Development Goal 7? • Background of SDG 7 roadmap development • What is an SDG 7 roadmap and how it helps? • NEXSTEP methodology • Anticipated results • Developing SDG 7 roadmap using NEXSTEP • Contents of a roadmap

Global framework for SDG 7

7.1 ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services

7.2 increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix

7.3 double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency

Proportion of population with access to electricity

Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology

Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption

Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP

GOAL TARGETS INDICATORS

SDG definition of clean cooking fuel: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-01-02.pdf SDG definition of renewable energy: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-02-01.pdf SDG definition of energy intensity: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-03-01.pdf

An integrated approach to 2030 energy transition

An integrated tool to assist policymakers make informed policy decisions that would help achieve

sustainable energy transition.

National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP)

Economic performance of

scenarios

e.g. investments, CBA, etc.

STEP 1

Energy, emissions and investment

modelling LEAP

Emission constraints and reduction targets

Renewable energy resources data

STEP 3

Scenario /Policy

analysis MCDA

OUTPUT Policy

recommendations

Enabling policy measures for each

SDG7 target

Historical energy data

Macroecono mic data e.g. GDP growth

rate

Demographic data

U se

r i nt

er fa

ce

Energy transition scenarios

Using the output from modelling, energy

transition scenarios to achieve the SDG7

targets (in agreement with the NDC target),

will be identified.

STEP 2

Economic analysis of scenarios

Performance indicators

Macro and micro economic

parameters

Evaluation criteria

Review of policies and best practices

NEXSTEP methodology

The unique feature of this methodology is the backcasting

approach for energy and emissions modelling which is

important for the case of SDG7 planning.

Methodology – Component 1

• Modelling of energy and emissions is undertaken using Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP)

• Helps to develop a number of scenarios • Using various demographic and macro-economic

data and information

• The Least Cost Optimization method is used to calculate the optimal expansion and dispatch of the electric power system

Methodology - Component 2

• Economic analysis involves • Estimating the cost of electricity supply plus local

generation (if any) • Identify the cheapest option of electricity generation,

E.g. • Fuel switching • Contracting – through PPA, RE Auction, etc.

• Helps make a decision on future power supply options • Assess the potential for increasing share or RE in

power

Methodology – Component 3 • Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a

popular tool in the public and private sector to help in making a policy decision

• It enables compare and contrast various policies and scenarios using a set of defined indicators

• Ideally this is done in a stakeholder consultation workshop

• Assessing criteria should represent a wide range of stakeholders • Helps to avoid any bias • Weights are chosen in consensus

STEP 3

Scenario /Policy

analysis MCDA

OUTPUT Policy

recommendations

Enabling policy measures for each

SDG7 target

Evaluation criteria

Review of policies and best practices

Expected output

• Energy demand and supply scenarios – BAU, CPS, SDG and ambitious scenarios.

• Technology identification and prioritisation for each scenario, • Policy options to achieve the targets of SDG7 and NDC, • Investment estimation and cost-benefit analysis for each

scenario; • Marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), • Levelised cost of Electricity (LCOE)

Progress towards SDG 7 Targets for 2030 in Armenia

NEXSTEP online portal

• Data from LEAP are extracted and uploaded on to the portal

• Can be accessed from anywhere • Data and graphs can be

downloaded • Policy recommendations can be

viewed • Customised reports can be

generated

NEXSTEP – capacity building NEXSTEP online portal LCOE estimation

Online training module

Energy appliances database

E-learning Program: SDG 7 roadmap development using NEXSTEP: Module 3: NEXSTEP Tool

SDG 7 roadmap development process using NEXSTEP

Country engagement

Receive request from country

Recruit national consultant

First mission – stakeholder identification

Data collection

Share data template

Data collected by consultant and stakeholders

Modelling

Energy & emissions modelling

Cost-benefit analysis

Scenario analysis and ranking

Policy analysis and

recommendations

Capacity building

ESCAP undertakes

second mission

Hands-on training on using

NEXSTEP

Country team develops the draft

roadmap

Stakeholder consultation on

the draft roadmap

Roadmap

Refinement, adjustment (if

any)

Country team finalizes the

roadmap

National acceptance

Country team and consultant prepare a summary

Summary submitted to government

Roadmap is officially

published and launche

Structure of the roadmap

Introduction

Backgroun d

Targets and

indicators for the country

Emission reduction

target

NEXSTEP methodology

Key steps

Scenario definitions

Economic analysis

Overview of the energy sector

Current situation

Energy profile of the country

Existing policies &

targets

Energy resources

Energy balance

Energy demand outlook

SDG 7 targets by

2030

Energy demand

Achieving key goals and

targets

Power generation

Policy actions

Raising ambition

Enhancing EE

Fossil fuel phase out

Price on carbon

Green financing

MACC

COVID-19 recovery

Importance of sust. energy

Reducing financial risks

Savings from the energy

sector Restructuring

fiscal measures

Revisiting existing policies

Comparing CPs and NEXSTEP

analysis

Identifying gaps

Recommendati ons to bridge

the gap

Executive summary • Summary for policymakers • Key results and findings • Important policy directions

Thank you

1

Second National Stakeholder Consultation Workshop and Capacity Building on the National Expert SDG Tool

for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) for the SDG 7 Roadmap for Armenia

UN Development Account project “Strengthening energy policies of Countries with Special Needs to build

back better from COVID-19” Yerevan, Armenia and online

Ani Grand Hotel 65, Hanrapetutyan Street 13 May 2024

10:00-13:00 (Yerevan) / 8:00-11:00 (Geneva) / 13:00-16:00 (Bangkok)

The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) are implementing jointly the UNDA project “Strengthening energy policies of Countries with Special Needs to build back better from COVID-19” (January 2022-June 2025) for eight beneficiary countries. UNECE is responsible for activities in three of them: Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. The project is aimed at supporting national Armenia obligations in the framework of the SDGs implementation. The main goal of the project is to develop a roadmap to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) “Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy sources for all.”

The first National Stakeholder Consultation Workshop on the Development of an SDG7 Roadmap for the Armenia was held on 25 November 2022 in Yerevan. It presented the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP), which is an integrated and innovative approach to policy decision- making that combines technical, economic, and socio-environmental analysis under a methodology that has been peer-reviewed by a panel of external experts. The tool supports the development of national SDG 7 roadmaps to provide policymakers with scenarios that estimate the share of different energy resources and identify the technological interventions required; economic analyses to provide insights into feasible interventions; and policy analyses to guide the development of balanced national policies.

In the course of 2023, ESCAP and UNECE, with support of the national consultant, collected data on energy intensity in industry, residential, transport and commercial sectors in Armenia. With the use of NEXSTEP, energy and emissions modelling, multiple scenario development, and economic analysis have been completed following an intensive data collection process. Key results and findings from the analysis will be discussed with stakeholders at the workshop to seek comments and suggestions and expert opinions to ensure that these findings are meaningful and aligned with Armenia’s specific context. Once agreed upon, these scenarios will form the basis for the development of the SDG7 Roadmap.

2

DRAFT AGENDA

9:30 – 10:00 Registration and online platform setup

10:00 – 10:20 Opening remarks • Representative of the Ministry of Territorial Administration and

Infrastructures of the Republic of Armenia (TBD) • Mr. Michael Williamson, Chief of Section, Energy Division,

UNESCAP (online) • Mr. Oleg Dzioubinski, Regional Adviser, Sustainable Energy

Division, UNECE Group photo

10:20 – 10:30 Welcome and workshop introduction • Mr. Oleg Dzioubinski, Regional Adviser, Sustainable Energy

Division, UNECE • Mr. Suren Shatvoryan, UNECE National Consultant for Armenia

10:30 – 10:45 Introduction and Overview of the NEXSTEP Tool • Mr. Vitaly Bekker, UNECE International Consultant (online)

o Purpose and objectives o Benefits and uses of NEXSTEP

10:45 – 11:15 Presentation of the SDG7 Roadmap scenarios • Mr. Anis Zaman, UNESCAP International Consultant (online)

o Scenario-based results for Armenia o Technological options and policy measures to achieve SDG7

targets o Key take-away points

• Ms. Margalita Arabidze, Head of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policy and Sustainable Development Department, Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

o Experience with SDG7 Roadmap scenarios for Republic of Georgia

11:15 – 11:45 Coffee break 11:45 – 12:25 Training on the NEXSTEP Tool by ESCAP

• Mr. Anis Zaman, UNESCAP International Consultant o Browsing through scenarios, indicators o Making adjustments to scenarios and indicators o Performing analyses and viewing results o Maintenance

12:25 – 12:50 Discussion, Q&A: moderated by Mr. Oleg Dzioubinski • Review of the key findings • Comments and recommendations

12:50 – 13:00 Wrap-up and closing • Mr. Oleg Dzioubinski, Regional Adviser, Sustainable Energy

Division, UNECE • Mr. Anis Zaman, UNESCAP International Consultant (online)

ARMSTAT

STATISTICAL COMMITTEE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

“Meeting of Group of Experts on Migration Statistics” 7-8 May, 2024, UNECE, Geneva

Karine Kuyumjyan Head, Population Census and Demography Division

O U T L I N E

• Background

• Legal framework

• Methodology of population census conduction

• Population groups relevant to Migration

• Main results from RA 2022 Population Census

• Conclusion

Background

▪ After declaring independence, the first Population Census in the Republic of Armenia was carried out in 2001, followed by the 2011 and used full field enumeration (traditional census) approach of data collection with paper census questionnaire.

▪ The 2022 Population Census was the third one conducted in Armenia, within the 2020 Census round. Taking into account the fact that the RA State Population Register and the administrative register of state border crossings (Border Management Electronic Information system (BMIS) function in Armenia and guided by the Recommendations for the 2020 Censuses of Population and Housing, Conference of European Statisticians, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), for the first time the combined approach was used for the RA 2022 Population Census implementation.

LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE 2022 POPULATION CENSUS PREPARATION AND CONDUCTING

• The RA Law “On Official Statistics” defines that censuses are to be conducted at least every 10 years (Article 21), and the timing of their conduct is adopted by a resolution of the Government of the Republic of Armenia.

• The timing of the 2022 census in the Republic of Armenia and the pilot census conduction were established by the Decree of the Government of the Republic of Armenia dated October 10, 2018. N1115-N. The composition of the Republican and Regional commissions for the preparation and conduct of the 2022 population census were also established by this Decree.

• Census fieldwork was conducted from October 13 to October 22, 2022 inclusive.

METHODOLOGY OF POPULATION CENSUS CONDUCTION IN THE 2020 CENSUS ROUND

• A sample survey was conducted to collect all the variables defined by the census program,

• The data were collected with tablets (using CSPro software package).

• Armenia transformed from the traditional approach of census conduction to the combined census method for the 2020 Census round.

• Administrative data were used as a base for the 2022 population census conduction in Armenia.

THE MAIN SOURCES OF ADMINISTRATIVE DATA USED FOR THE 2022 CENSUS

1. State Population Register

• Personal ID code; name, surname and patronymic, sex

• status (residence status or refugee status)

• actual registration address

• country of citizenship

• date of birth: month/ year, and country of birth.

2. Border Management Information System (BMIS)

The data of State population register were combined with the BMIS with a special

software program, at personal identification level In order to update the information

in the census context and to specify those in or out of the country, the duration of

absence or presence.

Armenia-Census 2022

- The sample survey covered 25% of the addresses from the state population register and the data were collected according to the census program adopted by the RA Government Decision. - The sample frame was constructed on the level of settlements of the Republic of Armenia. - The survey was conducted through interviews with the population covered in the sample by the census enumerators, using tablets. - More targeted data on internal and international migration amongst others was collected.

THE SAMPLE SURVEY

1. Country of birth

2. Country of citizenship

▪ for dual citizens - citizenship of the second country

▪ for the citizens of the Republic of Armenia – method how the citizenship was obtained:

➢ At birth

➢ Naturalized/by acquisition of citizenship

➢ Other

▪ For stateless persons

➢ Recognized as a refugee

➢ Asylum seeker

➢ Undocumented stateless person

➢Unknown

Questions from the 2022 Census relevant for migration

Population groups relevant to migration

▪ Data on foreign-born population and foreign citizens among usual resident population of the RA were obtained according to the population census results.

▪ The stock of international migrants among the permanent population of the Republic of Armenia comprised about 130 thousand persons, those who had migrated and resided out of the country at least once in their life.

▪ Native-born population comprised more than 2 803 thousand persons, or 95.6%.

Population of RA by country of birth and sex, %

95.6 96.1 95.1

0.8 0.7

0.8

3.6 3.2 4.1

TOTAL MALE FEMALE

Birthplace - RA Birthplace- Nagorno Karabakh Birthplace- Other foreign country

Permanent Population by Country of Birth and Age groups, %

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 +

Native born Foreign born

Distribution of the population of the Republic of Armenia by continuity of residence at the usual place of residence

79%

21%

Population living in a given place of residence continuously since birth

Population not living in a given place of residence continuously since birth

Distribution of Population not resided in a given settlement since birth by their Previous Place of Residence, %

76.8 72.3 84.2

4.2 3.8

4.6

19.0 23.9 11.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Urban Rural

Previous place of residence - Foreign country

Previous place of residence - Nagorno Kharabakh

Previous place of residence - Armenia

Distribution of Migrants by the duration of residence in their usual place of residence and previous place of

residence, %

76.8

66.8

72.1

79.0

12.1

21.8

10.4

11.4

11.1

11.4

17.5

9.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

< 1 year

1-5 year

≥6 year

To ta

l Li

vi n

g co

n ti

n u

o u

sl y

Changed usual residence within the country Arrived from CIS countries Arrived from other foreign countries

Distribution of Population by Country of Citizenship (RA 2022 Population Census)

Country of citizenship Numbers %

Total 2 932 731 100

Armenia 2 890 119 98.6

Russia 23 677 0.8

Georgia 7 451 0.2

Ukraine 1 401 0.1

Iran 2 333 0.1

Syria 2 149 0.1

Lebanon 844 0.0

India 554 0.0

USA 499 0.0

Other 3 019 0.1

No citizenship 685 0.0

Other sources of migration

• ARMSTAT uses both statistical and administrative data to produce migration statistics. The basis for recording the population size and its age and gender composition are the results of the last RA population census (2022).

• Sources for estimating annual population changes are administrative data: civil records of births and deaths, residence registration for estimates of inflows and outflows.

• In addition, data from the Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) is also used to estimate the net migration.

• Among the data on migration issues there are also data on the residence status of foreigners, asylum seekers and refugees, which are based on relevant administrative databases.

Conclusion

▪ The conduction of 2022 Census of RA was the first when the combined approach was employed, which differs by its’ traditional method of data collection used during the previous two censuses of 2001 and 2011.

▪ Platform for statistical data provision in real time was formed, by means of special developed software, based on the interoperability of the administrative databases of the State population Register and BMIS systems,

▪ Through the created platform, data on registered population, current population and permanent population are available to obtain in real time. starting from 2024 annual population counts of the permanent population numbers obtained by the results of RA 2022 census are used as base data.

▪ The 2022 Census provided real opportunity to increase significantly the availability of qualified, timely and reliable data disaggregated by migratory status and other characteristics.

Thank you!

ARMSTAT

Government Building 3, Republic Ave, Yerevan RA, 0010 HOT LINE: (374 10) 524 213, Tel: (374 11) 524 213, Official e-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

www.armstat.am/en /

DATA COLLECTION ON FORCIBLY DISPLACED POPULATIONS DURING THE 2022 POPULATION CENSUS OF ARMENIA

K A R I NE KU YU MJ YAN

H EA D, P O P U L AT I ON C E NS U S A N D D E MOG R AP HY D I V I S I ON

ARMSTAT

STATISTICAL COMMITTEE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ATRMENIA

REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

O U T L I N E

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

• Background

• Method of RA 2022 Population Census

• Sampling frame and Census conduction

• Refugee-related questions from the 2022 Census questionnaire

• Use of International Recommendations on refugee statistics

• Refugee related data according to the 2022 Population Census

BACKGROUND

• Over the last 30 years Armenia has hosted refugees and other displaced persons as a result of ethnic conflict and ongoing war in other countries. The country hosted forcibly displaced and stateless persons, including 115 000 refugees who were displaced as a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

• To address data challenges and gaps regarding these groups, ARMSTAT increased efforts to better capture data on forced displacement in national statistics.

• Taking the opportunity of the announcement of 2020 Census Round, UNHCR country office in cooperation with ARMSTAT, initiated round table discussions for the inclusion of statelessness and citizenship questions in the Census questionnaire, involving in the process International experts and relevant NGOs.

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

➢ 2022 Population census of the Republic of Armenia was carried out using a combined method:

▪ 100 % State population register

▪ sample based household survey covering 25% of the addresses using hand-held devices

➢ With special software the data of the state population register were connected with the data of Border Management Information System (BMIS), in order to clarify the status of residence in the country of registered persons.

METHODOLOGY OF THE 2022 POPULATION CENSUS CONDUCTION

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

The Sampling Frame of the Survey

• The sample frame was designed according to

the address lists created based on the RA

State Population Register database.

• The sampling was carried out in all the

settlements of the Republic of Armenia.

25 %

RA 2022 POPULATION CENSUS CONTENET

❑ The 2022 population census of the Republic of Armenia had been conducted in 13-22, October.

❑ Information on displaced population was also among the priorities in the census program, taking into consideration the recent conflicts and wars over the last 30 years, refugee influxes from neighboring countries, displaced people from the bordering settlements.

❑ ARMSTAT convened a roundtable to seek contributions from the relevant public institutions and migration service.

❑ The census questionnaire included a set of questions designed to identify the place of birth, citizenship, refugee status and reason for relocation of RA population.

GENERATION OF THE CENSUS DATABASE

Data collected from the sampled addresses according to the census

program

The statistical database for the RA 2022 census was generated according to the collected field data weighted to population total.

Data from the RA State Population Register

25%

100%

Workshop on the International Recommendations on Statistics on Refugees, Internally Displaced Persons and Statelessness in Geneva, May 6, 2024

THE DATA AVAILABLE FROM THE STATE POPULATION REGISTER

➢ personal code

➢ name, surname and patronymic

➢ status (residence status or refugee status)

➢ actual registration address

➢ citizenship

➢ birthday, month, year, and birth place

➢ sex.

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

Refugee-related questions from the 2022 Census questionnaire

❑ Country of birth,

❑ Country of citizenship, dual citizenship, the way RA citizenship was acquired,

❑ For stateless persons: recognized refugees, undocumented stateless, unknown stateless,

❑ Continuously residing in the usual residence since birth (yes/no)

if no: date of arrival, Country /RA region of previous usual

residence, main reason for changing the residence.

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

THE USE OF INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON REFUGEE STATISTICS FOR THE 2022 CENSUS

➢ The IRRS and IRIS were directly used to inform the development of the census methodology, pertaining to the displaced populations and the recommendations provided the “main source of guidance” to inform the questionnaire and advice on the use of administrative sources for producing statistics on refugees, asylum seekers and other displaced populations.

➢ The recommendations from chapter 4 of the IRRS were used to design the relevant questions of census questionnaire from the section B “2. Proposed core identification questions” to measure the number of refugees and to capture variables such as country of birth (COB), dual citizenship, refugee status (or recognition), and differentiation between asylum seekers and undocumented persons, as well as stateless populations.

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

Distribution of Population by Country of Birth (RA 2022 Population Census)

95.6

4.4

Native born Foreign born

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

20.4

30.1

17.2

16.5

1.7

4.2

1.0 2.9 6.0

Georgia Azerbaijan (SSR) Russia

Iran Syria Ukraine

Lebanon Nagorno Kharabakh Other

Distribution of Population by the Continuity of living in the Place of usual Residence and the country of previous residence, %

(RA 2022 Population Census)

79.0

21.0

Resided countinuesly since birth

Have not lived continuously in the given place of residence since birth

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

76.8 72.3 84.2

4.2 3.8 4.6

19.0 23.9 11.2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total Urban Rural

Previous residence: Other Country Previous residence: Nagorno Karabakh Previous residence:Armenia

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

The main reason for changing the place of residence of those not living at the usual place of residence since birth, %

55.3

26.6

5.0

4.4 3.7

1.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.9 Family Circumstances

For residence

Education/Training

For Employment

Due to military operations in other countries

Due to a well-founded fear of persecution

Repatriation

Temporary protection

Climate change

Other

Distribution of Stateless Population according their status (RA 2022 Population Census)

36.1

2.0

21.3

40.6

28.7

3.9

32.0 35.4

44.3

0

9.2

46.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Recognized as a refugee Asylum seekers Undocumented stateless persons

Unknown stateless

Total

Male

Female

%

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

ADMINISTRATIVE SOURCE OF DATA ACCORDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS

✓ The International Recommendations, section “3. Administrative data

including population registers” of chapter 4 of the IRRS was used to

produce administrative data from the register on International

Protection, maintained by the Migration and Citizenship Service under

the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Armenia.

✓ The main data source for statistics on asylum applicants and decisions taken during the asylum application process and it enables the measurement of data on persons granted refugee status, rejected claims according the country of citizenship.

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

Lessons Learnt

❑ The effectiveness of cooperation initiatives at the planning process.

❑ The operationalization of the IRRS and IRIS recommend- dations to identify forced displacement using different data sources and improve coordination/collaboration with relevant stakeholders in the process.

❑ Involvement of relevant NGOs working in the sphere for data collection programming process.

❑ The use of the combined method of Census conduction, including the information in the Population Register and the collected field data.

WORKSHOP ON THE INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS ON REFUGEES, INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND STATELESSNESS IN GENEVA, MAY 6, 2024

ARMSTAT

Statistical Committee Republic of Armenia

e-mail: [email protected]

e-net: https://armstat.am/en/

Thank you for attention!

CENSUS AT SCHOOL