European Population Conference 2005
Strasbourg (France), 7-8 April 2005
Statement by Mrs. Brigita
Schmögnerová,
Executive Secretary
Mr. Vice-President of the
Parliamentary Assembly,
Mr. Secretary-General, Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It gives me great pleasure
to address you at the opening of this Conference,
which will deal with issues of critical
importance for the future of our region.
Europe has been in the vanguard of the profound
transformation in population dynamics, known
as the demographic transition. EuropeIt
was the first to experience sustained mortality
decline, followed by changes in reproductive
behaviour and decreasing fertility, the
phase of rapid population growth, and the
so-called demographic “window of opportunity”.
The baby boom after World War II created
a second “window of opportunity”.
Now the conditions are much different: most
European countries are in the midst of a
situation without parallel in demographic
history, with fertility well below replacement
levels and imminent, or anticipated, decrease
of their populations.
According to the estimates
and projections of the United Nations Population
Division, the combined population of Europe
proper increased by over 180 million between
1950 and 2000; it is projected to decrease
by about 96 million between 2000 and 2050.
This decrease will be most pronounced in
Central and Eastern Europe; however, it
is also expected to strongly affect Southern
Europe. The shift from sustained population
growth to decline will have far-reaching
social and economic implications, as it
will challenge existing social and economic
institutions and ethnic and cultural balances.
Some even argue that it will call into question
the sustainable development in Europe and
will put a strain on the social cohesion
in our region.
The decrease of the European
populations will be accompanied by further
shifts in their age structures. Population
ageing is recognized as the most salient
demographic development of our times. It
will affect the ways in which our societies
and economies function. Let me illustrate
the magnitude of the anticipated changes
over the next five decades: according to
the aforementioned UN estimates and projections,
about a third of the populations in the
fastest ageing countries, such as Italy
and Spain, will be aged 65 and over by the
middle of the century. As population ageing
has substantial consequences for public
and private spending, economies will have
to adapt and grow at a sufficiently rapid
and sustainable pace. For this to happen,
labour force participation, employment rates
and investment in modern, knowledge-intensive
sectors have to increase. Social protection
systems, in particular pension schemes,
will have to be made sustainable, ensuring
intergenerational solidarity and fairness,
and economic security for older people.
We should reconsider current efforts to
reform the pension systems and prevent a
weakening of the intergenerational solidarity,
as certain generations might end up being
net losers from the current reforms. In
fact, in my opinion intergenerational fairness
is a prerequisite for the long-term financial
sustainability of a pension system if we
want to ensure its social inclusiveness.
The need to share the efforts necessary
to cope with population ageing in an equitable
way across generations was one of the important
messages contained in the documents adopted
by the UNECE Ministerial Conference on Ageing,
which was held in Berlin in 2002.
Let me use this opportunity
to highlight some of the other outcomes
of the Berlin Conference. I believe key
for its success was the all-inclusive approach
to ageing that it adopted, promoting the
development of a society for all ages through
the strengthening of inter-generational
and intra-generational solidarity, and calling
for coherent and mutually supportive policies.
In Berlin the Governments of UNECE’s
member States made 10 commitments that envisage
ageing to be mainstreamed in all policy
fields, and include a series of specific
policy objectives that need to be met concerning
the labour market, the social security,
health and educational systems, as well
as the family and gender relations fields.
The very low fertility
rates currently observed in Southern, Central
and Eastern Europe, but also in parts of
Western Europe, are now in the spotlight
of both policy-makers and the public at
large. The experts gathered in Geneva last
year for the European Population Forum,
which UNECE organized together with UNFPA
in the context of the ICPD+10 process, were
of the opinion that this situation has been
caused in part by a postponement of family-formation
and parenting. This fact raises two questions:
(1) firstly, will the cohorts experiencing
the postponement ever “catch up”
and attain the family size they would have
desired; (2) secondly, and most importantly,
could our societies further assist people
in their parenting roles. That second question
is on the minds of policy-makers in many
European countries, who are in the process
of reforming their family policies or who
are considering doing this in the future.
The need to create an environment free of
barriers for men and women to freely decide
on their parenting status was emphasized
during the European Population Forum. The
experts also pointed out that approaches
to low fertility that do not protect and
respect rights and choices will not provide
a solution to population decline. In newly
emerging market economies and economies
in transition, low and decreasing fertility
is strongly linked to the degradation of
the standard of living, housing conditions
and rising poverty, which urgently need
to be addressed. The review of commitments
made at the Millennium Summit, which will
take place in September at the General Assembly,
is a good opportunity for the assessment
of progress achieved, not only in developing
countries, but also in middle income countries
including EME and transition economies (so-called
MDG plus target review).
Another question that was
addressed at the 2004 European Population
Forum was whether European countries could
compensate at least in part for the low
fertility through immigration. The unanimous
answer was that for social, economic and
demographic reasons this could not be a
solution, but it could be part of a solution.
The experts attending the Forum emphasized
that the migration context in Europe has
changed considerably. International migration
is affecting all countries in our region,
be they countries of origin or destination,
as migrant flows are intensifying and becoming
more diverse. Although receiving countries
recognise that for economic, social and
demographic reasons immigration is a necessity,
often their policies do not manage migration
in a positive way, emphasizing instead control
and repression. The importance of comprehensive
approaches toward migration management and
adoption of adequate integration policies
is increasingly recognized. In addition,
there is a growing understanding that the
impact of migration and integration policies
will be greater if they are coordinated
at the local, national and regional levels
and if all stakeholders, including the immigrant
groups themselves, participate in the conception,
implementation and monitoring of these policies.
Ladies and gentlemen, this
region is very diverse in economic, social
and other terms. The levels, trends and
implications of demographic change vary
significantly among various parts of Europe
depending on the level of economic development,
health situation, cultural background and
other factors. One example is the dramatic
differences in life expectancy between Western
and Eastern Europe – on the average
the life expectancy at birth in the countries
with economies in transition is 7 to 8 years
lower than that in their West European neighbours.
Even though recently there have been signs
of improvements, special efforts are needed
to diminish this gap. Many of the countries
with economies in transition face weakened
health care infrastructures and restricted
access to quality health care. They have
also experienced growth of inequality and
poverty, collapse of support systems and
environmental degradation. These and other
factors are behind unacceptably high morbidity
and mortality levels in these countries,
which are endangering economic and social
development. The negative tendencies in
morbidity and mortality are compounded by
major irregularities in the age structures
in these countries, triggered by the effects
of wars, civil strife and population policy
interventions in the pre-transition time.
More importantly, the economic difficulties,
the fiscal constraints and the vulnerability
of the societies undergoing transition put
to a critical test their capacity to adequately
respond to the future demographic change.
All this underlines the
importance of better understanding the causes
and consequences of the current population
trends in Europe and the need to respond
to them through a coherent system of policy
measures. UNECE’s work in the population
field has always been based on the premise
that effective policy making requires sound
analysis based on reliable data. Hence,
UNECE has implemented or coordinated various
research and data collection activities
aimed at providing an information and knowledge
base for well-informed and effective policy-making.
We have also organized a series of intergovernmental
and expert meetings that have addressed
population and related issues.
As there are numerous categories
of stakeholders that can make a contribution
to the formulation and implementation of
policies in the population field, the need
for cooperation between them is of crucial
importance. This is why UNECE has always
strived to work closely with a range of
partners. Let me highlight in this context
that the European Population Conference
held in Geneva in 1993 as a regional preparatory
event for the International Conference for
Population and Development, was organised
jointly by UNECE and the Council of Europe,
along with UNFPA. That Conference was the
corollary of a long-standing collaboration
between UNECE and the Council of Europe
in the field of population. I do hope that
this collaboration will continue in the
future, to the benefit of both our two organizations
and our member States.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am aware that many of
the issues that you will be discussing over
these two days are difficult and sometimes
controversial. However, I trust that you
will debate them in a constructive manner,
and that your deliberations will result
in new insights into the causes and consequences
of population trends and patterns in Europe,
and offer invaluable advise to policy-makers
as to how to best address the challenges
that our region is facing.
I wish you all a most
productive conference. Thank you.
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