CONTENTS |
Page |
Explanatory
notes......................................viii |
Abbreviations......................................ix |
Preface......................................xi |
Part
One |
CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS |
Chapter 1 THE ECE ECONOMIES AT MID-1998 ......................................3 |
1.1 The global context and the situation in the
western market economies ......................................3 |
(i) Diverging performance
and increasing instability ......................................3 |
(ii) Economic crisis in East
Asia ......................................4 |
(iii) The economic situation
in western Europe and North America ......................................6 |
(iv) The short-term outlook
......................................9 |
1.2 The transition economies
......................................11 |
(i) The economic pattern in
the first half of 1998 ......................................11 |
(ii) Financial distress in
Russia ......................................22 |
Part
Two |
ENTERPRISE AND BANK RESTRUCTURING IN THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES |
Papers from the ECE Spring Seminar, 1998 |
Introduction
by the Economic Analysis Division, UN/ECE ......................................29 |
Chapter 2 ENTERPRISE AND BANK RESTRUCTURING IN
THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES |
Robert I. Mochrie, Mark E. Schaffer and
Alan A. Bevan ......................................33 |
2.1 The nature of market
orientation ......................................33 |
(i) Enterprise structure
......................................33 |
(ii) Bank structure
......................................34 |
2.2 The starting point and
the nature of transition ......................................35 |
2.3 Restructuring in the
enterprise sector ......................................37 |
(i) Adjustment by state owned
firms ......................................37 |
(ii) Enterprise performance
and ownership ......................................40 |
2.4 The banking sector in
transition ......................................42 |
2.5 Bankruptcy, creditor
passivity and enterprise restructuring programmes ......................................45 |
(i) The role of bankruptcy in
market economies ......................................45 |
(ii) Bankruptcy, creditor
passivity and soft budget constraints in transition economies
......................................47 |
(iii) Alternatives to
bankruptcy ......................................48 |
2.6 Managing the transition
in the banking sector ......................................52 |
(i) Stock problems: the role
of government ......................................54 |
(ii) Privatization as a
policy objective ......................................54 |
2.7 Current issues
......................................56 |
(i) Banks as agents of
enterprise restructuring ......................................56 |
(ii) Banks as owners
......................................57 |
(iii) Entry ab initio ......................................58 |
(iv) Foreign institutions
......................................60 |
Discussion of chapter 2 by Marek Belka
and Eugen Jurzyca ......................................64 |
Page |
Chapter 3 BANKING SECTOR REFORM IN THE
TRANSITION ECONOMIES A CENTRAL BANKING PERSPECTIVE |
Elmar B. Koch ......................................67 |
3.1 The relevance of the
topic ......................................67 |
3.2 Some major caveats
......................................68 |
(i) Interdependence,
comprehensiveness and complexity ......................................68 |
(ii) Eastern Europe a
diverse group of countries ......................................68 |
(iii) Sound banking a
vision emerging ......................................68 |
3.3 Growth and finance
the important link ......................................69 |
(i) Introduction
......................................69 |
(ii) Selected factors in
stimulating growth ......................................69 |
3.4 Banking supervision
status and Core Principles a must in avoiding crashes
......................................76 |
3.5 The supportive role of
foreign banks ......................................76 |
3.6 Non-bank financial
intermediaries and conglomerates high on the watch list
......................................77 |
3.7 Conclusion
......................................77 |
Annex to chapter 3: Illustrative list of indicators of
robust financial systems ......................................79 |
Discussion of chapter 3 by David M.
Kemme and István P. Székely ......................................82 |
Chapter 4 ENTERPRISE AND BANK RESTRUCTURING IN
RUSSIA |
Evgeny Gavrilenkov ......................................87 |
4.1 Introduction
......................................87 |
4.2 Macroeconomic climate and
microeconomic performance: current trends and selected problems
......................................88 |
4.3 Balance of payments and
capital flight: how Russian money can be used abroad
......................................91 |
4.4 Russian firms: some
aspects of firms behaviour ......................................94 |
4.5 The banking sector and
its role as an intermediary between savings and investment: were there
any changes in 1997? ......................................95 |
Discussion of chapter 4 by Silvana
Malle ......................................99 |
Chapter 5 A CASE STUDY: THE CZECH PRIVATIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT STRUCTURAL
CHANGES IN CAPITAL OWNERSHIP AND PROPERTY RIGHTS |
Pavel Mertlík ......................................103 |
5.1 Introduction
......................................103 |
5.2 Investment funds
......................................104 |
(i) Definitions
......................................104 |
(ii) The first wave of the
Large Privatization (1990-1992)......................................104 |
(iii) The second wave of the
Large Privatization (1993-1994) ......................................104 |
(iv) Change in the regulation
of IFs in 1996 ......................................105 |
(v) Further institutional
change in 1998 ......................................105 |
5.3 Capital concentration
......................................105 |
(i) Major factors behind
reconcentration ......................................105 |
(ii) Subsequent changes in
the structure of ownership ......................................106 |
(iii) Results
......................................106 |
(iv) Role of the banks
......................................107 |
Discussion of chapter 5 by Marie
Lavigne ......................................110 |
Page |
Chapter 6 ENTERPRISE RESTRUCTURING IN EAST
GERMANY |
6.1 Introduction
......................................111 |
6.2 The twofold policy
strategy for enterprise restructuring: privatization and subsidization
......................................113 |
6.3 Enterprise restructuring:
some considerations ......................................114 |
6.4 Database
......................................115 |
6.5 Enterprise restructuring:
results on an aggregate level ......................................116 |
(i) Sectoral specialization
......................................116 |
(ii) Exports
......................................117 |
(iii) Productivity and unit
labour costs ......................................118 |
6.6 Enterprise restructuring:
evidence from the DIW enterprise panel ......................................119 |
(i) Ownership change
......................................119 |
(ii) Overall performance of
enterprises and obstacles ......................................120 |
(iii) Capacity utilization,
incoming orders and market access ......................................123 |
(iv) Investment strategies
......................................124 |
(v) Profit situation and
inadequate equity capital ......................................125 |
6.7 Conclusions
......................................126 |
Discussion of chapter 6 by Michael
Kaser ......................................129 |
Part
Three |
STATISTICAL APPENDIX |
STATISTICAL
APPENDIX ......................................133 |
Corrections
to Economic Survey of Europe, 1998 No. 1 ......................................161 |
LIST OF TABLES |
Table...................................... Page |
|
1.1.1 Annual
changes in real GDP in east Asian countries, 1996-1998
......................................5 |
1.1.2 Quarterly
changes in real GDP, 1997-1998 ......................................7 |
1.1.3 Real
GDP in the ECE market economies, 1995-1998 ......................................10 |
1.2.1 Basic
economic indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1995-1998
......................................12 |
1.2.2 International
trade and external balances of the ECE transition economies, 1995-1997
......................................13 |
1.2.3 GDP
and industrial output in the ECE transition economies, 1997-1998
......................................14 |
1.2.4 Retail
trade in the transition economies, 1996-1998 ......................................15 |
1.2.5 Consumer
prices in the transition countries, 1996-1998 ......................................17 |
1.2.6 Total
and industrial employment in the transition economies, 1995-1997
......................................18 |
1.2.7 Registered
unemployment in the transition economies, 1997-1998
......................................19 |
1.2.8 Trade
performance and external balances of the ECE transition economies, 1997-1998
......................................20 |
1.2.9 CIS
countries trade with CIS and non-CIS, 1997-1998
......................................21 |
2.3.1 Change
in total industrial employment in selected transition countries
......................................37 |
2.5.1 Survey
of 50 Czech manufacturing firms in 1994 ......................................48 |
3.3.1 Banking
supervision ......................................75 |
4.2.1 Real
industrial output by sectors, 1990-1997 ......................................89 |
4.2.2 Allocation
of loss-makers among large- and medium-scale enterprises by sectors, 1996-1997
......................................89 |
4.2.3 Profits
in Russian Federation enterprises by sectors, 1991-1997
......................................90 |
4.3.1 The
aggregated 1997 balance of payments: revised and prior revision
......................................91 |
4.3.2 Balance
of payments of the Russian Federation, 1994-1997 ......................................92 |
4.3.3 Alternative
estimates of the exports and imports of the Russian Federation, 1995-1997
......................................92 |
4.3.4 Reconstructed
balance of payments of the Russian Federation, 1994-1996
......................................93 |
4.4.1 Top
10 Russian enterprises by sales, 1996 ......................................94 |
4.4.2 Top
10 Russian enterprises by profits, 1996 ......................................94 |
4.4.3 Top
10 Russian enterprises by market value, 1996 ......................................94 |
4.5.1 Selected
indicators of Russian commercial banks, 1996-1997 ......................................97 |
4.5.2 Top
10 Russian commercial banks as at 1 January 1998 ......................................97 |
6.1.1 Indicators
of the economic catching up in eastern Germany, 1991-1997
......................................112 |
6.1.2 Structure
of eastern German gross value added, 1990-1996 ......................................112 |
6.2.1 State
of privatization in eastern Germany at the end of 1994
......................................113 |
6.2.2 Selected
economic support measures for eastern German companies, 1991-1996
......................................114 |
6.5.1 Gross
production in manufacturing, 1991 and 1996 ......................................118 |
6.5.2 Exports
in manufacturing, 1991 and 1996 ......................................119 |
6.6.1 Eastern
German manufacturing firms according to ownership status, 1991-1996
......................................120 |
6.6.2 Eastern
German manufacturing firms facing problems in the market, 1991-1996
......................................120 |
6.6.3 Selected
problems perceived by manufacturing firms in eastern Germany, 1991-1996
......................................121 |
6.6.4 Manufacturing
firms in east Germany facing problems in the market, 1995 and 1996
......................................122 |
6.6.5 Selected
problems for manufacturing firms in east Germany, 1995 and 1996
......................................122 |
6.6.6 Capacity
utilization and incoming orders in eastern German manufacturing firms, 1996
......................................123 |
6.6.7 Distribution
of turnover of eastern German manufacturing firms, 1996
......................................124 |
6.6.8 Investment
per employee in eastern German manufacturing industry, 1995-1996
......................................125 |
6.6.9 Plans
for investment and leasing of eastern German manufacturing firms for 1997
......................................126 |
6.6.10 Profit
situation perceived by east German manufacturing firms, 1995-1996
......................................127 |
A.1 Real
GDP in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997 ......................................135 |
A.2 Real
private consumption expenditure in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................136 |
A.3 Real
general government consumption expenditure in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................137 |
A.4 Real
gross domestic fixed capital formation in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................138 |
A.5 Real
total domestic demand in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................139 |
A.6 Real
exports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................140 |
A.7 Real
imports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................141 |
A.8 Industrial
output in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997 ......................................142 |
Table...................................... Page |
A.9 Total
employment in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................143 |
A.10 Standardized
unemployment rates in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997
......................................144 |
A.11 Consumer
prices in the ECE market economies, 1983-1997 ......................................145 |
B.1 Real
GDP/NMP in the transition countries, 1980, 1984-1997
......................................146 |
B.2 Real
total consumption expenditure in the transition countries, 1980, 1984-1997
......................................147 |
B.3 Real
gross fixed capital formation in the transition countries, 1980, 1984-1997
......................................147 |
B.4 Real
gross industrial output in the transition countries, 1980, 1984-1997
......................................148 |
B.5 Total
employment in the transition countries, 1980, 1984-1997
......................................149 |
B.6 Registered
unemployment in the transition countries, 1990, 1993-1997
......................................150 |
B.7 Consumer
prices in the transition countries, 1989-1997 ......................................151 |
B.8 Producer
price indices in the transition countries, 1989-1997
......................................152 |
B.9 Nominal
gross wages in industry in the transition countries, 1990-1997
......................................153 |
B.10 Merchandise
exports of the transition countries, 1980, 1985-1997
......................................154 |
B.11 Merchandise
imports of the transition countries, 1980, 1985-1997
......................................155 |
B.12 Balance
of merchandise trade of the transition countries, 1980,1985-1997
......................................156 |
B.13 Merchandise
trade of the transition countries by direction, 1980, 1985-1997
......................................157 |
B.14 Exchange
rates of the transition countries, 1980, 1985-1997
......................................158 |
B.15 Current
account balances of the European transition countries, 1990-1997
......................................159 |
B.16 Inflows
of foreign direct investment in the transition countries, 1990-1997
......................................160 |
LIST OF CHARTS |
Chart...................................... Page |
|
1.1.1 Average
monthly nominal exchange rates against the dollar, January 1995-June 1998
......................................4 |
1.1.2 World
commodity prices, January 1995-May 1998 ......................................5 |
1.1.3 Quarterly
changes in real GDP, 1996-1998 ......................................8 |
3.3.1 GDP
growth and inflation in transition economies, 1991-1997
......................................71 |
3.3.2 Financial
indicators in eastern Europe, 1993-1998 ......................................73 |
4.2.1 Inflation
and real growth rate of payables, 1993-1997 ......................................90 |
4.3.1 Quarterly
capital outflows and increases in the stock of payables, 1994-1997
......................................93 |
4.5.1 Interest
rates in Russia, 1996-1998......................................96 |
6.5.1 Production
and the volume of new orders in east German manufacturing industry, January 1991 to
September 1997 ......................................117 |
LIST OF BOXES |
Box...................................... Page |
|
2.3.1 The
Hungarian bankruptcy framework ......................................38 |
2.5.1 The
Polish bank and enterprise restructuring programme
......................................50 |
2.5.2 Konsolidacni
Banka the Czech Consolidation Bank ......................................51 |
2.7.1 Bank
failure in transition economies a comparison of the Czech Republic, Latvia and
Romania ......................................59 |