Document Title |
Documents | Presentations | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENG | |||||
| Tentative Timetable | |||||
| Information Note | |||||
| Report of the meeting | |||||
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Item 2: Methodology |
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| 1 | Population projections when using time series with extreme values (Iceland) | ||||
| 2 | Demographic determinants of population ageing in European countries (United Kingdom) | ||||
| 3 | Application of comparative analysis of official polls and expert estimations of indicators in demographic projections (Georgia) | ||||
| 4 | Factual determination methodology aspects of demographic processes in forecasts (Georgia) | ||||
| 5 | Preparing population projections in developing countries (Mexico) | ||||
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Item 3: Sub-national Projections |
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| 6 | Estimating sub-national behaviour in the Danish microsimulation model SMILE (Denmark) | ||||
| 7 | Bayesian multiregional population forecasting: England (United Kingdom and Australia) | ||||
| 8 | Testing a simple averaged model for local and regional population forecasts (Australia) | ||||
| 9 | Projecting the regional explicit socioeconomic heterogeneity in India (Austria) | ||||
| 10 | Subnational population projections for the Republic of Korea, 2013 - 2033 (Republic of Korea) | ||||
Item 4: Assumptions on fertility |
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11 |
Why is fertility falling in Norway? An analysis of parity transitions over the last decade (Norway) |
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| 11 Add.1 | Tables and figures | ||||
| 12 | Projecting Future Fertility in Russia: using cohort approach together with the idea of the Second Demographic Transition (Russian Federation) | ||||
| 12 Add.1 | Tables and figures | ||||
| 13 | Religiosity and its impact on fertility projections in Israel (Israel) | ||||
| 14 Rev.1 | Immigrant fertility in Sweden – a cohort perspective (Sweden) | ||||
| 15 | Estimation of Fertility in Colombia through an adjustment for coverage of births with immunization records (Colombia) | ||||
| Item 5: Assumptions on mortality | |||||
| 16 | A Comprehensive Framework for Mortality Forecasting (United Kingdom) | ||||
| 17 | Is mortality variation by region of birth an issue for mortality projections? The case of Sweden (Sweden) | ||||
| 18 | Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking (Netherlands) | ||||
| 19 | The growth of Australia’s very elderly population: past estimates and probabilistic forecasts (Australia) | ||||
| Item 6: Assumptions on migration | |||||
| 20 | Modelling the future evolution of international migration for Belgium (Belgium) | ||||
| 21 | Empirical Evaluation of Migration Forecasting Methods (United Kingdom) | ||||
| 22 | Recent Refugee influx and migration assumptions in Germany – public debate and opportunities for projection maker (Germany) | ||||
| 23 | Potential Emigration of Youth From Georgia (Georgia) | ||||
| 24 | Gender aspects of migration of a human resource of Georgia(Georgia) | ||||
| Item 7: Beyond projections by age and sex | |||||
| 25 | Probabilistic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041: Combining the Brass relational method with a Random Walk model (Norway) | ||||
| 26 | Education-specific labor force projections: painting the global picture | ||||
| 27 | Extremity Injuries and Dementia disproportionately increase the Risk for long-term Care at older Age. An Analysis of counter-factual projection scenarios based on German Health Insurance Routine Data (Germany) | ||||
| Item 8: Communicating projections to users – Progress report by the UNECE Task Force on Population Projections | |||||
| 28 | Key recommendations and good practices in the communication of population projections (Task Force on population projections) | ||||
| Introduction | |||||
| Disseminating results | |||||
| Transparency | |||||
| Uncertainty | |||||
| Fostering relationships with users | |||||
| Survey results | |||||
| Draft database on population projection metadata | |||||
Work Session on Demographic Projections
18 - 20 April 2016
Palais des Nations Geneva Switzerland