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UNECE air pollution experts discuss updated reduction scenarios, climate impacts and nature restoration

UNECE air pollution experts discuss updated reduction scenarios, climate impacts and nature restoration

Forest degradation - aerial photo

Following the decision of Parties to the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (Air Convention) to revise the Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-Level Ozone (Gothenburg Protocol), which is expected to further strengthen efforts to reduce air pollution in Europe and North America, technical and scientific work has begun to support the revision process.   

At the 10th joint session of the scientific bodies under the Air Convention, the Steering Body to the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) and the Working Group on Effects (WGE), experts discussed scientific inputs to the revision process this week (Geneva, 9-13 September 2024).  

The Working Group on Effects and EMEP are currently working on setting up scenarios as a basis for the Gothenburg Protocol revision. These scenarios will define the scope for further potential emission and impact mitigation. A collective target for the pan-European region and North America to reduce air pollution-related health and ecosystem impacts by 50 per cent by 2040, compared to 2015, has been suggested as a starting point. In the discussions at the meeting, experts further reflected on the ecosystem target and highlighted the need to protect different types of ecosystems, especially the most sensitive ones, which are currently not included in the scenarios. 

One factor of uncertainty that was highlighted in the discussions was the impacts of climate change on air pollution and interaction with air pollution effects in the future.  

On the effects side, for example, in addition to air pollution pressures, forests are increasingly threatened by climate change-related factors, and the knowledge and understanding of forest dynamics is necessary to identify management solutions for forest resilience while maintaining biodiversity and provision of ecosystem services, including in the context of climate policies. Experts already observe reduced potential of forests to contribute to climate targets. Continued monitoring is essential to document progress to reduce air pollution impacts on forests, an important factor affecting the health and sustainability of forest ecosystems around the world, especially under the concurrent pressure exerted by annual meteorological fluctuations and long-term climate change.  

In the context of the targets for ecosystems in the Gothenburg Protocol and related discussions on ecosystem and nature protection, experts emphasized that many ecosystems are degraded, and deposition levels are still too high. Even with further emission reductions, legacy effects of earlier pollution mean that recovery cannot be expected in the foreseeable future. The focus in nature policies is therefore shifting from nature protection to nature restoration. Experts agreed that dynamic modelling could help analyze scenarios for nature restoration - including possibilities, means and timeframe for restoration.  

Recommendations from the 10th joint session of the scientific bodies will be further discussed at the forty-fourth session of the Executive Body for the Convention (Geneva, 9-12 December 2024).