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Work Session on Demographic Projections

Work Session on Demographic Projections

18 - 20 April 2016
Palais des Nations Geneva Switzerland
Document Title
Documents Presentations
  Tentative Timetable PDF  
  Information Note PDF  
  Report of the meeting PDF  

 Item 2: Methodology

1 Population projections when using time series with extreme values (Iceland) PDF PDF
2 Demographic determinants of population ageing in European countries (United Kingdom) PDF PDF
3 Application of comparative analysis of official polls and expert estimations of indicators in demographic projections (Georgia) PDF PDF
4 Factual determination methodology aspects of demographic processes in forecasts (Georgia) PDF PDF
5 Preparing population projections in developing countries (Mexico) PDF PDF


Item 3: Sub-national Projections

6 Estimating sub-national behaviour in the Danish microsimulation model SMILE (Denmark) PDF PDF
7 Bayesian multiregional population forecasting: England (United Kingdom and Australia) PDF PDF
8 Testing a simple averaged model for local and regional population forecasts (Australia) PDF PDF
9 Projecting the regional explicit socioeconomic heterogeneity in India (Austria) PDF PDF
10 Subnational population projections for the Republic of Korea, 2013 - 2033 (Republic of Korea) PDF PDF
Item 4: Assumptions on fertility


Why is fertility falling in Norway? An analysis of parity transitions over the last decade (Norway)

11 Add.1 Tables and figures PDF  
12 Projecting Future Fertility in Russia: using cohort approach together with the idea of the Second Demographic Transition (Russian Federation) PDF PDF
12 Add.1 Tables and figures PDF  
13 Religiosity and its impact on fertility projections in Israel (Israel) PDF PDF
14 Rev.1 Immigrant fertility in Sweden – a cohort perspective (Sweden) PDF PDF
15 Estimation of Fertility in Colombia through an adjustment for coverage of births with immunization records (Colombia) PDF PDF
  Item 5: Assumptions on mortality    
16 A Comprehensive Framework for Mortality Forecasting (United Kingdom) PDF PDF
17 Is mortality variation by region of birth an issue for mortality projections? The case of Sweden (Sweden) PDF PDF
18 Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking (Netherlands) PDF PDF
19 The growth of Australia’s very elderly population: past estimates and probabilistic forecasts (Australia) PDF PDF
  Item 6: Assumptions on migration    
20 Modelling the future evolution of international migration for Belgium (Belgium) PDF PDF
21 Empirical Evaluation of Migration Forecasting Methods (United Kingdom) PDF PDF
22 Recent Refugee influx and migration assumptions in Germany – public debate and opportunities for projection maker (Germany)
23 Potential Emigration of Youth From Georgia (Georgia) PDF  
24 Gender aspects of migration of a human resource of Georgia(Georgia) PDF  
  Item 7: Beyond projections by age and sex    
25 Probabilistic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041: Combining the Brass relational method with a Random Walk model (Norway) PDF PDF
26 Education-specific labor force projections: painting the global picture PDF PDF
27 Extremity Injuries and Dementia disproportionately increase the Risk for long-term Care at older Age. An Analysis of counter-factual projection scenarios based on German Health Insurance Routine Data (Germany) PDF PDF
  Item 8: Communicating projections to users – Progress report by the UNECE Task Force on Population Projections    
28 Key recommendations and good practices in the communication of population projections (Task Force on population projections) PDF  
  Introduction   PDF
  Disseminating results   PDF
  Transparency   PDF
  Uncertainty   PDF
  Fostering relationships with users   PDF
  Survey results   PDF
  Draft database on population projection metadata   PDF