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Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2020-2040

Outlook 2020-2040

The Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2020-2040 provides information for the UNECE region that supports decisionmaking by showing the possible medium- and long-term consequences of specific policy choices and structural changes, using scenario analyses whenever possible. The study is the first to cover the entire region and provides results for the main UNECE subregions of Europe, North America and the Russian Federation.

The study provides insight on six priority questions which were identified through a transparent and participatory process: (i) How would different demand changes affect the UNECE forest products market?; (ii) How would different supply changes affect the UNECE region forest products markets? (iii) How would significant trade restrictions affect the UNECE region forest product markets? (iv) How will UNECE forests be affected by climate change? (v) How could UNECE region forests and the forest sector contribute to climate change mitigation? (vi) How could UNECE forests adapt to climate change?

The study contains information on the possible impacts of future trends regarding the future forest carbon sink in tonnes of CO2 equivalents, and on harvest, production, consumption, net exports and prices of wood products by
2040.The study takes a pragmatic, transparent and objective approach to answering these key questions, sometimes using a modelling approach. It enables stakeholders to evaluate the long-term consequences of policy choices.

The study contributes to evidence-based policy formulation and decision making. It is not a forecast of what will happen in the future. Rather, it sheds light on the possible consequences of policy choices and of factors external to the forest sector, most notably anthropogenic climate change. The study draws attention to the following issues emerging from the analysis in the study, and asks questions which policy makers and stakeholders might consider: (i) Disturbances and the forest sink; (ii) Demand for land for increased carbon sequestration by forests; (iii) Putting substitution in a wider context; (iv) Trade measures, and; (v) Need for a system-wide, holistic
approach to strategies and policies

References are available in the publication and at this link.