Austrian
exports kept rising at a healthy pace over the first months this year.
Manufacturing output, adjusted to the number of working days, slackened
markedly in spring. While still rising as a whole by 2.25 percent compared
to the same period of the previous year for the first five months of the
year 2001, monthly figures for April and May show declines of ¾
and 5 percent, respectively. Weaker activity in the export-oriented sector
is spilling over to wholesale trade, where turnover in the first quarter
fell by 1 percent in volume compared to the level of the year before.
As
a result of excess supply of new homes the demand for construction material
is low, and, as regards civil engineering, investments have been curbed
by public authorities, notably at the local level. Production output fell
by 3.5 percent in March and 7 percent in April compared to the level of
the year before. This is reflected by a significant fall in employment
(-12,000 compared to the same period of the previous year in the first
half of the year). The WIFO business survey among construction firms and
their suppliers suggests that the negative trend might continue.
Growth
of overall employment has decelerated markedly since mid-year 2000. Latest
figures show a modest gain of 0.5 percent (excluding people on parental
leave and in statutory military service), too small to prevent unemployment
from rising, as it has done since May. The seasonally adjusted rate of
unemployment last remained at 5.8 percent of the dependent labour force,
or 3.8 percent of the total labour force according to Eurostat.
Consumer
price inflation remained high in June, at a 2.8 percent rate, although
the annual figure was no longer boosted by last year�s raise in indirect
taxes and public charges. Prices of energy and meat continue to exert upward
pressure. Inflation is still outpacing gains in employees� per-capita earnings.
In the first half of this year, the rise in the contractual wage index
of 2.6 percent trailed that of the consumer price index by 0.3 percentage
points. In addition considerable tax increases are contributing to the
squeeze in employees� net real incomes; yet private consumption is still
proving robust. Retail sales from January to April (excluding motor cars
and sales at petrol stations) rose by an inflation-adjusted 1.25 percent
above the level of the year before.
After
the economic cycle had begun to swing back mid 1999 the positive trend
continued throughout
the first half of the year and was able to keep the market situation up
for the second half of 2000, despite clouds looming. By the end of the
year paper exports had grown by 3.8 percent to 3.7 million tonnes
and domestic deliveries by 1.5 percent to 0.8 million tons; production
was 4.4 million tons in 2000, which is an increase of 5.9 percent. Improved
volumes and price levels led to a new record turnover of Euro 3.56 billion
for the Austrian paper industry. Investments in the paper industry in 2000
were mainly used to rebuild parts of existing paper machines and increased
the capacity only marginally.
In
Austria increased prices for paper were mainly caused by two different
factors. One was the tight market situation and the heated demand by processors
for their input material; the other risen production costs. Especially
pulp prices constituted a serious problem for non-integrated mills.
In
the current year 2001 the production was reduced according to the lower
demand in order to keep
the paper prices relatively stable.
The
prospects for 2002 mainly depend on the international economic development.
Corresponding to general economic predictions the paper industry shows
strained optimism for 2002.
Roundwood
The
severe damage by storm in Western Europe on the 26th of December
1999 (hurricane �Lothar�) decisively affected the timber market in 2000
and it took the entire year to finish off the large amounts of damaged
wood. Even though the export demand for sawnwood and paper was very high
due to the high dollar exchange rate, forest owners in Austria were confronted
with a sharp decline in roundwood. The high supply of roundwood caused
by the storm, in particular in Switzerland and in Germany, resulted in
an increase in roundwood imports. Altogether 8.4 million solid cubic meters
of roundwood were imported from abroad, which lead to an average import
price considerably below the level of 1999. Due to the market situation
the production (annual fellings) decreased in the year 2000, with the private
owners of small forests and the Austrian Federal Forest Agency, �Österreichische
Bundesforste AG�, considerably decreasing the amount of forest harvesting,
while large-scale private forest enterprises maintained the same level.
As
to the timber prices and harvesting levels no major changes compared to
the previous year are expected for the year 2001. Big diameter logs continue
to be under pressure. As a result of the hurricane of the year 1999 (straightened
cutting lines, calamity timber) and the marked capacity increase of the
sawmilling industry logwood imports have remained at a high level. All
in all the expectations on the logwood market are not too pessimistic despite
serious economic framework data. For the next months a growth of demand
for logwood is expected. However, as a result of the timber supply from
areas affected by storm damage (import pressure) no essential price improvements
are foreseeable. The further increasing exports of sawnwood to Italy and
Asia contribute to the stabilization of the market.
As
far as the development for 2002 is concerned expectations are slightly
optimistic. The impact of the hurricane on the timber market is expected
to diminish and there is hope that the slump in the economic cycle could
be overcome.
Sawnwood
The
production of the Austrian Sawmilling Industry in 2000 amounted to Euro
1.83 billion. Compared to 1999 this means an increase of more than 3%.
The production climbed to 10.4 million m³. The Sawmilling industry
comprises about 1,550 enterprises of which about 1,300 are small-scale,
and the total number of persons employed is about 10,000.
The
Austrian Sawmilling Industry was observed to have considerably reduced
its investment activity in 2000. After record investments of Euro 538 million
in 1999 not more than estimated Euro 211 million were invested last year.
As to the current year, investments to the amount of Euro 109 million are
expected, which corresponds approximately to the level of 1998.
An
important concern of the Austrian Sawmilling Industry is to quickly implement
the certification system according to the PEFC. The certification in the
chain of custody has started. A group scheme has been developed for this
industry which allows a cost-efficient participation in the system.
Altogether,
sawnwood exports have seen a dynamic development in 2001, declines are
only recorded in exports to Germany and the United States. The predictions
for the second half of the year are slightly optimistic. Apart from Germany,
which however imports only a small share of the Austrian sawnwood, all
other target markets for Austrian goods are working smoothly. A well-balanced
supply of roundwood, production standstills in almost all large sawmills
in summer, as well as the breakdown of a large plant due to fire have contributed
to the stabilization of the market. The development in 2002 will depend
primarily on the general development of the economic cycle and on our ability
to conquer market shares in Japan and on other markets.
Wood-based
panels
The
Austrian board industry concluded its enormous investment plans with a
volume of more than Euro 300 million in 2000, which means that Austria
as an economic site can be proud of havingone
of the most modern and most competitive wood material industries in Europe.
Due to an export quota of more than 80 percent the Austrian fiber and chipboard
industries play a prominent role for the Austrian export-oriented industry.
As a result, the foreign trade balance has amounted to more than Euro 370
million.
Altogether,
the Austrian board industry showed very positive results in 2000. As a
result of the slackening economic development observed all over Europe
predictions for the years 2001 and 2002 can, however, be only slightly
optimistic for the time being.
Certified forest products
In
June 1999 the certification process was launched according to the PEFC
scheme (Pan-European Forest Certification). Simultaneously with the foundation
of the international umbrella organisation the most important forest unions,
timber industry and timber trade associations, trade unions and environmental
associations established the working group PEFC Austria, the Austrian platform.
Decisions are taken unanimously.
Since the Austrian certification
system was officially recognized by the PEFC Council in September 2000
it has been applied in practice. Both forest certification by means of
the regional model and the �Chain of Custody� (CoC) monitoring by group
models for small- and mediums sized enterprises are tailor-made for Austrian
conditions.
The first region was certified
in December 2000 and comprises 550,000 hectares, the other regions will
be certified by the end of 2001. Also the CoC certification of wood processing
enterprises has already started. 15 CoC certificates have already been
issued; first PEFC logo utilization licences have been granted as well.
From next year on a larger quantity of PEFC certified products will be
available on the market.
So
far the FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) certification system has not played
a major role in Austria.
3. Tables
Economic indicators